Donald Trump was typically blunt when he first warned in December that there would be “all hell to pay” in the Middle East if Israeli hostages held in Gaza were not released before his inauguration.
The US president-elect’s combative tone had the desired effect, adding momentum to long-stalled talks and culminating in Israel and Hamas agreeing on Wednesday to a ceasefire deal that halts the devastating 15-month war in Gaza and frees 98 captives. remaining held in Gaza. belt
With Steve Witkoff, Trump’s New York real estate associate, turned Middle East envoy, playing a central role as he shuttled between Qatar — which hosted the negotiations — and Israel, brokers finally secured the deal that had long eluded the Biden administration.
This means that the people of Gaza, who have endured endless suffering during the deadliest war in their history, will finally have some respite from Israeli bombs and bullets and can start thinking about rebuilding.
Relatives of the remaining Israeli hostages held since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people will begin to hope their nightmare is over, according to Israeli officials. The prisoners, who have suffered a hellish existence trapped in Hamas’ network of tunnels, will be freed if the deal stands.
The main question is whether it can last. Will this be a temporary pause, or will it lead to the permanent ceasefire that brokers, the Palestinians and the wider region so desperately want?
Trump has already claimed victory to help secure a deal where President Joe Biden failed. But the durability of the ceasefire brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt may depend on his willingness to continue using US political muscle, including ensuring that the far-right government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees the deal through .
The incoming Trump administration is filled with staunchly pro-Israel figures, and during his first term he showed little empathy or patience for the Palestinians while implementing a series of pro-Israel measures that overturned decades of American policy. But the hope is that Trump will now look to own the deal and ensure its success.
However, there will be the risk of spoilers from all sides, including Hamas, whose military capacity has been severely weakened but not eradicated.
The cease-fire agreement is based on a three-phase proposal that Biden first endorsed in May. It will begin with an initial 42-day ceasefire, during which 33 hostages – including women, the elderly and the wounded – will be released in exchange for an agreed number of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops are supposed to be dispersed away from urban centers and allow aid to flow to the region, which is plagued by hunger and disease.
More challenging is the second phase, which aims to lead to a permanent ceasefire, the release of the remaining hostages – including Israeli soldiers – and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops.
At this stage, the finer details of which have yet to be negotiated, Netanyahu’s commitment will be fully tested.
He has repeatedly ruled out a permanent end to the war or the withdrawal of his forces from Gaza. Hamas, meanwhile, has demanded that high-profile prisoners, including those serving life sentences for murder and terrorism, be released in exchange for the soldiers held hostage – a bitter pill for Israelis to swallow.
Netanyahu already faces resistance from allies and far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich has described the agreement as a “handover”; Ben-Gvir this week called on the former to join forces with him to resign from the government.
While the veteran prime minister’s governing coalition was strengthened by the addition of another right-wing party in September, the departure of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich would still leave him with a minority government. That could force Netanyahu into early elections, bringing the political reckoning to the ballot box that he has sought to avoid.
There is still no clarity on the crucial issue of who will direct the comic. Neither Israel, the United States nor Arab states want Hamas – which has ruled Gaza since 2007 – to regain control, but Netanyahu has not presented a workable plan for “the day after the war”. He has resisted US and Arab pressure to work with the Palestinian Authority, which controls limited parts of the occupied West Bank.
He opposes any move toward a Palestinian state, which experts say is the only long-term solution.
The Biden administration has been talking with Arab partners for months about the possible formation of an international security force that would work alongside a PA-backed Palestinian interim administration, including the Gazans, to deal with civilian affairs. .
But the US wouldn’t put boots on the ground, and it’s unclear who else – if anyone – would, given the risks of plunging into an insurgency and being seen as doing Israel’s bidding. . It is not clear whether Trump will propose his own plan, or even if he has thought about the future of Gaza beyond his inauguration day.
Yet the needs of the people of Gaza could not be more urgent. Israel’s offensive has killed more than 46,000 people, according to Palestinian officials, including civilians and fighters. Entire families have disappeared and a generation of children have been left orphaned and scarred for life.
Schools, hospitals, homes, offices and businesses have been destroyed. The vast majority of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been forced to flee their homes. Many do not know what they will find when they return.
Trump is likely to focus on pushing for a grand bargain that leads to normalization of relations with Israel by Saudi Arabia. But Riyadh insists this can only happen if Israel takes irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state.
With Netanyahu and his far-right allies in power, Israel is more likely to want to annex the West Bank or escalate hostilities with Iran than make concessions to the Palestinians.
The cessation of hostilities took nearly a year of negotiations. But compared to the Herculean task of rebuilding Gaza, not to mention the long-elusive goal of lasting peace in the region, it may turn out to be the easy part.
