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It is not yet clear whether the Gaza ceasefire will come into effect. But if the war really is ending, what does it mean for the world?
For Israel, the impact seems twofold. The country’s leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, can argue that he has turned a national tragedy into a strategic victory. Hamas has been destroyed, if not completely destroyed. Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group that was the most armed and threatening part of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” has also been weakened. Iran and Israel have exchanged live fire. But most of Iran’s missiles failed to penetrate the defenses of Israel and its allies – and the Islamic republic appears in a weaker position than it has for decades.
At the strategic level, Israel is emerging from this conflict as the Middle East’s superpower—with its military deterrence fully restored and its enemies in disarray. But against this, Israel has suffered great reputational damage. Some 46,000 people are believed to have been killed during Israel’s offensive and Gaza is in ruins. Netanyahu has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges – which puts him in the same legal category as Vladimir Putin. Like the Russian leader, Netanyahu will now find it much more difficult to travel internationally.
Israel’s popularity has fallen in international opinion polls. Young people – even in the US – are now much more hostile to the country. A Pew poll in April concluded that: “Young Americans are more likely to sympathize with the Palestinian people than the Israeli people.” A third of adults under 30 said their sympathies were all or mostly with the Palestinian people, compared with 14 percent who sided with Israel.
Israelis can hope that opinions will soften over time – especially if peace is restored. Netanyahu and his allies also believe that friends in the White House will matter far more than enemies on American campuses.
But Trump’s friendship may not be unconditional. There is palpable consternation on the Israeli far-right that the incoming US administration has thrown its weight behind a cease-fire and hostage-release deal that was negotiated by the Biden White House. Hopes in Israel that Trump would give him a completely free hand to deal with the Palestinians as he sees fit have taken a knock.
Trump’s decision to push hard for peace now may reflect two main factors. The first is his desire to take credit for a deal and the release of the hostages. The second is that – while Israel enjoys fervent support from the Republican right – it is not the only important country in the region. During his first presidency, Trump’s first trip abroad was to Saudi Arabia.
The incoming Trump administration is now likely to push for normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia — which was also a key goal of the Biden administration. Potentially, this offers a glimmer of hope to the Palestinians, as it is widely believed that the Saudi price for normalization would be tangible progress towards a Palestinian state. However, this may be a price the Israelis are unwilling to pay, which could mean that the Saudi-Israeli deal remains a mirage.
The war in Gaza has also had global as well as regional significance. One of the reasons the US and its Western allies have been reluctant to put much pressure on Israel is their belief that Iran is a common enemy. Over the past year, Western officials have increasingly spoken of their belief that they are now waging a global war against a “free axis of adversaries” made up of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
By weakening Iran, Israel has also weakened that axis. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was, in large part, a knock-on effect of Israel’s devastating attack on Hezbollah, which was a key ally of Bashar al-Assad.
Assad’s fall from power was, in turn, a significant blow to Iran and Russia, which had intervened militarily on his behalf. Russia was using Syria as a base for power projection and now it needs to back off. Paradoxically, Israel itself has had a much more cautious response to the fall of Assad than many in the West, fearing that jihadist forces will move into the power vacuum in Syria.
A recent casualty of the Gaza war has been the “rules-based international order” promoted by the Biden administration. Sympathy and support for Israel after the October 7 attacks led the US to tolerate frequent violations of international humanitarian law during Israel’s attack on Gaza. Restoring the rules-based order may be as difficult as the physical reconstruction of Gaza.
gideon.rachman@ft.com
