Is it getting harder for promoted teams to survive in the Premier League? Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich are on the course for a number of unwanted records …
Leicester suffered their 10th loss in 11 games, losing 2-0 in West Ham on Thursday with a whisper. Saints have lost nine of their previous 10 matches, while Ipswich lost six of their previous seven.
According to Opeta, the fate of the saints is already sealed, with the chances of foxes to survive up to only 2.4 percent and Kieran McKenna’s side at 3.4 percent.
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Southampton ARE Still struggling not to become the worst team in the history of the Premier League. Currently, Ivan Juric’s side is on the course to register 13 points – two points more than the current unwanted record held by Derby in 2007/08.
The worst seasons of pl
squad |
Season |
Pt |
Derb |
07/08 |
11 |
Sunderland |
05/06 |
15 |
Huddersfield |
18/19 |
16 |
villa |
15/16 |
17 |
Sunderland |
02/03 |
Circle |
The table below shows how many of the three promoted teams have survived each season since 1996/97, revealing how two or more parties often avoided the decline by around 2013/14 – except for a period between 2004 and 2008.
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Highlights from the Premier League clash between West Ham and Leicester.
However, more than one team has survived just four times in the past 10 seasons and this campaign may be the first time all three promoted sides have been moved to the back-back-back campaigns-after Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton.
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The graph below turns those survival rates into a rolled, five -year -old average and – here and here – this season will have the lowest survival level during that period if all three promoted sides suffer from decline.
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Based on the current points reports, promoted teams will collect a low all the time of 61 points combined this term – with last season shifted trio holding the current record.
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What about the belief in old age that a ‘magic 40 points’ is required for survival? The table below shows how it fell real in the early days – but teams have been looking for less and less points to avoid falling.
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Again, turn those numbers into a five-year average and teams usually usually require closer 30 points-an additional decrease of nearly eight points over 30 years-being equalized with a 21 percent drop.
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So what is the solution for the growing parties promoted the Chass are trying to overcome more and more? Spraying large amounts of money has certainly helped in the past.
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
Home points from the Premier League match between Chelsea and Southampton.
The graph below plots each team promoted since 1995/96 against their net expenses for transfers during the respective campaign – revealing a clear link between survival (teams in green) and high levels of spending.
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
Paul Merson was left shocked by the quality gap from Southampton’s performance, and expressed concern about the south coast side after losing them 4-0 away to Chelsea.
However, the promoted sides of this season (marked in blue) seem set to break even more unwanted records – with Ipswich becoming the most promoted expense party to incur immediate departure.
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
Free to see: Home points from Manchester United’s match against Ipswich Town in the Premier League.
Surely, the tractor boys needed more investment after winning back-back promotions from League One. However, the saints also recorded more than 100 million WARK net expenses; This amount also exceeds Fulham’s current record, set in 2018/19.
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And the trio set their stables early, collectively spraying a record of £ 315m just in the summer window.
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While the championship promotion competition heats up, with Leeds, Sheffield United, Burnley and Sunderland struggling for automatic points and numerous teams in the Play-off mix, their chances of returning to the second level next year seem more and more likely.