Although the worst war in Europe has been initiated since Hitler and has the blood of hundreds of thousands in their hands, Russia’s Vladimir Putin is not a leader who is known for making major decisions.
Mostly over his long term at the head of the Russia Power Pyramid, many analysts believe that Putin prefers to delay and postpone them instead of acting.
When Putin’s answer finally came on Thursday whether he would agree to a Ukrainian proposal supported by the USA for a 30-day ceasefire, it was characteristic.
“We agree to hire hostilities,” said the Russian president at a press conference in Moscow together with the Belarusian, strong man Alexander Lukashenko.
But in the next breath Putin said a short break in the war was little interested in him, and instead he remained obliged to “long -term peace” that “would eliminate the original causes of this crisis”.
In other words, theoretically yes – but no for the moment no.
Details have to be explained.
Putin implied that all of these answers take some time, more discussions and direct discussions with the US President.
Buy time
In the meantime, the war will continue to grind.
Part of Putin’s strategy can be to buy its troops more time to create cheaper front lines for the possible freezing of the conflict.
“Putin drags his bets off,” said Mark Galeotti, a Russian analyst based in London.
“He delays so that his armed forces can complete the reconquest of Kursk, he is looking for further concessions, but he doesn’t say ‘No’.”
In summer, the Ukrainian military shocked Putin’s army by conquering a considerable part of the Russian territory in Kursk and holding for more than six months.
But in the past few weeks when Donald Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to commit himself to an armistice and temporarily reducing help and secret services, Russia’s military – with the help of troops from North Korea – concentrated the main burden on Kursk and finally cut off the Ukrainian care.
The Ukrainian leaders admit that they now only have a tiny fragment of the original Russian bag. And in his press conference, Putin said in the coming days that the remaining Ukrainians on the Russian territory would be faced with the election: “Either result or die.”
Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s important foreign policy consultant, had previously looked for the statements of his boss and said that Russia had little interest in a temporary standstill of the war, without one of the more comprehensive goals being recognized.
“We don’t give us anything. There is only the opportunity to group the Ukrainians, to gain strength and continue the same,” said Ushakov.
Expansive goals
Although Putin has been suffering from Russian victims in the three years since his invasion since his invasion and repeatedly has not achieved the most important territorial goals in Ukraine, there has been no indication that one of his expansive goals for his attack on the country changed in 2022.
Putin has constantly required the “de-militarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine to eliminate the current political leadership of Ukraine and its replacement by a Russia-friendly regime.
He also demanded that Ukraine only have a small Rump army and give up any efforts to join NATO or the European Union.
Putin continued to call NATO returning to her configuration before 1990 and left the Baltic states, Poland and other Eastern European countries. Finally, he also insisted that Ukraine recognizes the four Ukrainian regions that Russia captured as a permanent part of Russia during the war.
They are all concessions that Zelenskyy said that no Ukrainian leader could ever accept.
“We see a state that is still interested in war and invasion,” said Ian Garner, a Canadian academic who has now taught in Poland and has written in detail about Putin’s regime.
“Putin’s tactic negotiation, which is more about Brinksmanship than compromises. This is what we have seen in the past 10 years,” said Garner, assistant professor at the Pilecki Institute, a Polish thinking factory.
“I suspect (Putin) who deals with a tactic – he presents claims that are unacceptable for Ukraine, and Putin therefore says to Donald Trump:” We have tried, they are inappropriate, let us make a deal. “” “
Garner says that avoiding a direct “no” to the ceasefire is the dialogue with Trump and the potential for the restoration of political and commercial relationships between Russia and the United States,
Trump’s comments
In his first comments on Putin’s answer, when he spoke from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump hope, he hoped Putin “does the right thing” and that the statement by the Russian leader, while “promise” was “not completely”.
Remarkably, Trump also suggested that Ukraine’s Ukraine, which affect the captured areas, lose or possibly regain -as part of a peace agreement.
“A power plant is involved,” said Trump, a possible reference to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar – Europe’s largest – that is now under Russian control.
“Many details of the final agreement have been discussed, so we will see whether Russia is there and whether it is not a disappointing moment for the world.”
Previously, Trump had said that he could take measures that could destroy the economy of Russia if Putin rejects the ceasefire, but the US President took far tough with Ukraine, including temporarily cut -off US arms deliveries and the distribution of the secret service.
In a statement on Thursday evening, Zelenskyy Putin’s explanation of the ceasefire “manipulative” and an attempt to confuse and disguise the fact that he wants to continue with the invasion.
The war continues
The next movements seem to reach Trump.
His envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in Moscow on Thursday evening, and Trump said he was ready to speak directly to Putin in the near future.
In the meantime, however, the invasion of Russia seems to continue, as well as the defense of its territory by Ukraine.
CBC News reached a 52-year-old Ukrainian soldier, Oleh, a former history teacher who was wounded in the fight in Kursk.
His 26-year-old son is still fighting in the Eastern Donetsk region.
Oleh underlined the immense military pressure that the soldiers were still exposed to the front of Ukraine.
“Russia has a very large fire capacity – more than we do,” he said.
“We cannot react appropriately. And in principle we slowly have to say that they withdraw.”
He admitted that most Ukrainian civilians want a ceasefire, but soldiers are prepared for the negotiations fail.
“We are soldiers, we are instructed to fight, we will fight. But as a father I don’t want to stay more.”
