Unlock the White House View Newspaper FREE
Your guide to what the 2024 American elections mean for Washington and the world
Europe’s largest military powers are creating plans to take on greater responsibility for protecting the continent from the US, including a step in the Trump administration for a managed transfer over the next five years.
Discussions are an attempt to avoid the chaos of a unilateral US withdrawal from NATO, a fear caused by President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to weaken or walk away from the transatlantic alliance that has protected Europe for nearly eight decades.
The United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Nordics are among the countries involved in informal but structured discussions, according to the four European officials involved. Their goal is to come up with a plan to relocate the financial and military burden on European capitals and present it to the US in front of the NATO leaders’ annual summit in The Hague in June.
The proposal will include strong commitments to increase European protection spending and building military skills, in an effort to persuade Trump to agree with a gradual surrender that would allow the US to focus more on Asia.
SH.BA, which spends more on defense than all other NATO allies combined, is indispensable for European security.
In addition to its nuclear prevention, which is committed to protecting Europe with several European air forces holding US nuclear weapons, it provides military ability that continental allies do not own, run air bases, marine and troops and has 80,000 troops located in Europe.
Countries including Germany, France and the United Kingdom have moved to increase their protection costs or accelerate the already planned growth since Trump’s election, while the EU has supported initiatives for its member states to speed up increased military investments.
It would take about five to 10 years from that increased expenses to increase European skills to a level where they could replace most US powers, officials said, not including the US nuclear prevention.
“Increasing spending is the only game we have: the burden and the shift of the number from the US trust,” said one of the officials. “We’re starting those talks, but it’s such a great task that many are overloaded by its degree.”
While US diplomats have assured their European counterparts that Trump remains committed to NATO membership and Article 5 of its mutual protection clause, many European capitals are nervous that the White House may decide to rapidly scaling its bodies or equipment placements or break away from NATO joint tasks.
Some capitals were not willing to get involved in the burden of changing the burden of fear of encouraging US to move faster, officials said, with the confidence that rhetoric-trump has no intention of making significant changes in the country’s presence in Europe. Others are skeptical that his administration would even agree with a structured process given its unpredictable nature.
“You need a deal with the Americans and it’s unclear if they will be willing to do it,” another officials said. “Can you even trust them to keep it?”
Officials point to the continued and regular discussions, led by France and the United Kingdom, about the formation of a “will coalition” to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia and invest in European defense as indicators of travel. These discussions among more than a dozen European defense powers do not include the US
Asked what a European pillar would say within NATO and if possible, a third West senior official replied: “We are seeing it now: the United Kingdom and France taking the initiative (with a security force for Ukraine) without Americans.”
NATO officials argue that maintaining the alliance with less or no inclusion in the US was much simpler than creating a new structure, given the difficulty of recreation or renegotiation of its existing military plans to protect the continent, its intentions and rules of skills, its command structure and Article 5.
The basic defense of Europe would always seek the United Kingdom and other Atlantic maritime powers, the Nordics for the North and Turkey of the continent for south-eastern defense, officials said: NATO membership already.
“Even without the United States, NATO provides a security cooperation facility in Europe,” said Marion Messmer, a senior associate of international security research at Chathham House.
“There are aspects that need to be replaced if the US breaks away. However, it provides a structure and infrastructure framework with which Europeans are really familiar. It does a lot of the work you will have to do from scratch if you create another type of structure for European members,” Mesmer added.
