They would have to hurt up to their eyeballs, but there is a foreseeable scenario in which Canada and the USA build a narrower relationship from this ugly moment.
This result is anything but safe – hence the tubers.
But an influential figure in Washington is committed to seeing it. Donald Trump’s first trading tsar predicted the optimistic scenario in Ottawa last week and spoke behind closed doors.
“What is going on now won’t take it and it will be okay,” Robert Lighthizer told The Canada Strong and Free Network, a conservative think tank, on a recording that was shared with CBC News.
“The relationship between the United States and Canada will be just as good or better than ever and the business relationship will be fine.”
After the national elections this month, there are three broad potential scenarios that Canada and the United States are willing to extend comprehensive Commercial and security negotiations.
Name the good place, the bad place and the messy middle.
The plan of US President Donald Trump for tariffs and exceptions did not become clearer over the weekend. Officials said that the electronics from China would be exposed to tariffs in the coming months due to “national security”.
The good place? Economic security, military security-Canada receives both, restored with delicate trading and the US defense shade is intact. Canada could even achieve new advantages if the United States retained its tariffs against other countries.
Lighthizer indicated. He suggested that Canada won a competitive advantage in the middle of the latest trade war, since its tariffs are generally lower than in most countries.
Most of the products that were traded as part of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (Cusma) have collective bargaining exceptions, and Canada and Mexico have not received the same 10 percent universal tariff as in other countries.
“My own analysis is that Canada is better because (Cusma) is more valuable than six weeks ago,” said Lighthizer.
He added a restriction. There is still tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.
He did not mention tariffs in another massive industry, the car sector, which is now caught in a tangle of exceptions and duties – a Swiss cheese of trade barriers.
That brings us to the messy middle.
Bleak and dark scenarios
It is the intermediate scenario and frankly it looks like our current purgatory: a relationship corroded by doubt, which is eaten away from one tariff here and another.
“I think (Cusma) is currently on life. And I think it will be the case for the next year,” the Mexican economist from Jescha’s Carrillo told a panel on Monday that was organized by the Brookings Institution, a thought factory based in Washington.
He predicted that the trading pact would survive. On the other hand, in this chaotic, uncertain moment when the tariffs change from day to day, who knows what the trade reality of tomorrow will be? Let alone next year.
Just take a look at the latest appearances by Lighthizer’s successor, the current US trade representative Jamieson Greer.
In two days after hearings on the Capitol Hill last week, he also referred to Canada and Mexico and enjoyed privileged access to the US market under Cusma.
US President Donald Trump announced the possibility of additional tariff exceptions for certain auto parts produced in Canada after the tariffs for electronic imports from China unclear ambiguities. Trump said on Monday that further tariffs were expected to target pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
On the other hand, he also spoke about an advantage for the wider western hemisphere. He said several times that textile production could move closer to home, since Latin American countries mostly had a tariff of 10 percent, while it was four times in most Asian countries.
But his certificate was out of date when he left the US capitol. While Greer was still on the witness stand, Trump removed this difference in tariffs and gave almost every country on earth the same 10 percent interest rate.
And that’s the chaotic middle. Our current unstable trading system, which is confused by one minute to the next by an unpredictable US president with tariffs for certain products, but not by others; And it changes from day to day.
As the Democratic Senator Ron Wyden said from Oregon, his voice rose: “What. The plan? In the past week the white house was on the entire card.”
It could be worse. It could be a full-grown, ever-increasing crisis-the bad place. We already got insights between December and March.
Trump threatened the economic and national survival of Canada again and again for about three months and spoke of impairing it so much that he could join the USA
He recently stopped talking about the squeezing of the Canadian economy or forcing it to accept the US -Annexion or to obtain the prime minister as a “governor”.
We will soon know whether he wants to resume after the federal elections this month when it becomes clear whether Trump has changed his melody or has bitten his tongue out of fear of influencing the coordination.
Obstacles for a quick deal
In any case, it will take some time to rebuild trust, says an analyst in Washington. It compares the process with therapy – Canada and the USA will initially radiate its grievances.
“At the moment things are very hot and we have to give some time to cool down so that there can be a reset,” said Jamie Tronnes, Managing Director of the Center for North American prosperity and security.
“Canada and the United States need some time to get to the table and talk about the problems we had in the relationship.”
The United States has long -term complaints about Canada’s failure to fulfill its defense obligations, from the Arctic to military spending. Canada was now upset about these tariffs.
Several other factors could pull this out.
For example, it can take over a year to check the Cusma if the USA follow itself Legal processes For the new negotiation. In theory, the United States was able to reduce tariffs during the negotiation.
“The mechanisms for change (Cusma) are not clear,” said Cararrillo, who wondered whether Trump will follow the formal process or catch up with a faster business.
Due to a personnel problem, delays can become worse: the US trade team is thinly stretched. They juggle talks with dozens of countries – and Greer has carried several hats and have different intermediate roles in the White House.
When negotiations begin, the priorities are not a mystery.
Canada’s main goal? Build legal advice to stop Trump from handing over tariffs as you wish also prefer.
It is a large order. Trump will not be interested in giving up his contact point. After all only threatened more tariffs Against Mexico, in a dispute over water. He also studies tariffs for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
What the Americans want the most
The United States has several goals. It is unhappy Canada’s digital service tax. Either adjustments to or at the end of the supply management system for dairy products, eggs and poultry will obtain.
But is it a top priority? Research from foreign parts from the US production – especially Chinese steel and car components, although it could go on.
Lighthizer was vague about the details in his Ottawa lecture, but he called this priority No. 1. Cars are “the biggest,” he said. “I hope we tighten it even more.”
But he raised another painful point. He was experienced by his usual trade lane to spend on Canada for defense. Canada “doesn’t pay for his share. … it just doesn’t,” he said. “And that has to be addressed.”
These are probably the broad topics.
The United States will obtain changes to cars, dairy products, digital taxes, defense spending and only on the basis of Trump’s latest sniping from loose banking regulations.
Canada’s top priority? Stability. It may follow additional offers – think of Softwood Lumber – but the main goal is to lock up old ties in a world that is anything but stable.
“I think we will be a good place at some point,” said Tronnes. She added a restriction with a touch of graphic images.
Cusma ‘still lives. It is as if many said that it is under a guillotine and is just waiting to be cut. But I am optimistic. “
