Russia has accused Moldova of plotting a military operation in Transnistria, a Russian-backed separatist region, prompting concerns among some analysts that Moscow could be a “false flag” attack on Moldova.
Russian intelligence said earlier this week that Moldovan President Maia Sandu was planning a military operation in Transnistria, which borders Ukraine. Sandu was sworn in for her second term as president on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, Russia's Foreign Ministry alleged that NATO was turning Moldova into an arms hub for Ukraine, an allegation that is likely to further fuel fears that Moscow may seek a justification for possible action against its neighbor. smaller.
Here's more about what's going on with Russia and Moldova – and what to expect.
What does Russia claim?
On Monday, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service said Moldova's Sandu was planning a military operation in Transnistria. Russian intelligence speculated that the military operation could escalate into war.
Sandu's chief of staff, Adrian Balutel, rejected the claims, insisting the country had no such plans to enter Transnistria militarily, even though it claims the territory as part of Moldova.
Then on Wednesday, Russia added a new claim – that US-led NATO had transferred large numbers of weapons to Moldova in recent months. Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said Moscow believed the weapons were ultimately destined for Ukraine. She cited Sandu's pro-Western leanings to bolster her claims.
In recent months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increasingly suggested that not only Ukraine, but also other countries that help him in his fight against Moscow, could potentially be treated by the Kremlin as enemies it can attack.
What are the 'false flag' concerns?
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sandu has raised the alarm that Moldova could be Moscow's next target, urging Western leaders to address Moldovan concerns.
When Sandu was sworn in for her second term this week in the capital Chisinau, she said: “We succeeded in opening the door wide to the European Union.” Moldova has been a candidate country for the EU since June 2022, waiting for Brussels to formally accept its request to join the group.
The Kremlin's latest accusations, say analysts at the Washington, DC-based Institute for the Study of War, may be part of a larger plan to disrupt Moldova's accession to the European Union (EU), destabilizing it. The Kremlin, ISW warned in a report, may also be setting conditions “for a false flag operation in Transnistria.”
What is Transnistria?
Transnistria is a breakaway region of Moldova from Russia, located between part of the Dniester River in Moldova and Ukraine. Romania lies to its west.
The region broke away from Moldova in 1990. In September 2006, it passed a referendum reaffirming its independence and calling for a union with Russia. This referendum was not recognized by Moldova.
In February 2022, the leaders of Transnistria appealed to Russia for protection. The appeal came days after war broke out in Ukraine and was similar to calls made against Russia by pro-Moscow leaders in parts of Ukraine, which Russia used as justification to seize control of Crimea in 2014, and large parts of of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. in the year 2022.
Internationally, Transnistria is recognized as part of Moldova, but Europe sees the region as occupied by Russia as of 2022.
Transnistria hosts Russian troops as well as a large Russian weapons storage facility, the Cobasna ammunition depot.
Currently, 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed inside the separatist region of Moldova, according to a report published by the Harvard International Review in October.
What are the other ways Russia is putting pressure on Moldova?
Political: Moldova voted in presidential elections last month amid allegations of Russian interference. However, the pro-Western Sandu won 55.33 percent of the vote, defeating former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, who had the support of the Russian-leaning Socialist Party.
In a report published earlier this year, London-based think tank Chatham House said the group's research “suggests that Moscow is also targeting the Moldovan public information space with toxic disinformation”.
Moldova's national security service has also alleged that pro-Russian oligarchs in Moldova paid millions of euros to organize anti-government protests and commit election fraud. These include former Moldovan MP Ilan Shor, who was convicted in absentia on fraud charges in January.
Energy: Meanwhile, Moldova faces an energy crisis. Moldova receives about 2 billion cubic meters (71 billion cubic meters) of gas from Russia every year. From 2022, all this gas is sent to Transnistria.
Transnistria then sells electricity, produced from Russian gas, to Moldova.
However, this gas comes through a pipeline that passes through Ukraine. Kyiv has now decided that it will no longer allow the transit of this gas. Sandu has accused Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, of refusing to consider using an alternative pipeline and trying to prepare Moldova for what it has said will be a “harsh” winter without Russian gas.
Russia's gas supply to Moldova is expected to end on January 1, 2025. Earlier in December, Moldova declared a state of emergency due to the impending shortage.
Transnistria then sells electricity to Moldova, supplied by Russian gas.
Violence: In April 2022, explosions targeted the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, the largest city in Transnistria. A day later, further explosions destroyed two powerful radio antennas among other facilities in Transnistria.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, along with other allies of Ukraine, said the blasts were also fake attacks orchestrated by Russia to portray Transnistria as being attacked by Moldova – because of Moldova's support for Ukraine.
