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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
Less than three weeks from now, Donald Trump will be sworn in for the second time as president of the United States. Although much of his appeal stems from his disregard for convention, Trump is at his core a very predictable figure. Since losing the 2020 election, he has repeatedly vowed to use the tools of American justice to settle scores with his enemies. For this, the returning president should be taken literally as well as seriously. The same goes for his view that officials owe their allegiance to him personally, rather than to the US constitution.
In his first term, Trump often lost his cool when his wildest wishes were blocked by government lawyers, Pentagon officials, intelligence agencies and others in the so-called Department of Energy. This time he has tried to appoint figures who can be relied upon to do his bidding without regard to rules and conventions. Former attorney general Bill Barr claimed that in his first term Trump suggested that rivals be “executed”. Barr said he wasn’t worried about Trump’s impulses because he knew they would be thwarted.
Such complacency is no longer deserved. The Supreme Court last July significantly increased Trump’s powers by granting almost blanket immunity to “official acts” of the US president. In theory this could include killing political opponents. In practice, it will almost certainly involve legal witch-hunts against Trump’s opponents in politics, the media and civil society. Some of them, like Liz Cheney, the former Republican congresswoman, and Mark Milley, the former chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, he has repeatedly singled out.
It would be rash to assume that the punitive impulse will stop at the water’s edge. Even before taking office, Trump has threatened to expropriate the Panama Canal, which returned to Panamanian sovereignty in 1999, and expressed plans for Greenland, which has long been under Danish sovereignty. Although Democratic and Republican administrations have ignored international law when it suits them, none have come close to Trump’s disdain for the concept itself. The world should prepare for a much less restrained Trump in his second term than last time.
The caliber of Trump’s top nominees should focus minds at home and abroad. Of these, Kash Patel, as head of the FBI, Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence, and Pete Hegseth as US defense secretary, cause the loudest alarms. Patel is a Trump ultra loyalist who has published his enemies list. Gabbard was an admirer of the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad, recently toppled in Syria, and often parrots Vladimir Putin’s propaganda on Ukraine. Hegseth, a Fox News anchor, believes the top US military should be purged and replaced with Trump loyalists.
The most effective check on Trump’s illiberal impulses may be the US Senate. Republicans have a slim 53-47 majority. It only takes four Republicans to block a candidate. Indeed, Matt Gaetz, Trump’s first choice as his next attorney general, had to withdraw when it became clear he lacked the votes. True conservatives are surely aware that the rule of law lies at the heart of the American tradition and the market economy. The Senate should block the confirmation of Patel, Gabbard and Hegseth. Lower court judges, the media and civil society also have a lot of room to moderate Trump’s worst impulses.
Like all strongmen, Trump fears the bold and despises the sycophants. He has threatened to use his presidential powers to target those who stand in his way. Bowing to Trump’s wishes will only magnify them. The US system is about to receive the mother of all stress tests. Courage, above all, will be the most precious virtue in the coming months.
