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Your guide to what the 2024 American elections mean for Washington and the world
Donald Trump is the greatest asset of Maga movement and its greatest responsibility.
The US president is a political genius. But he is also, in the memorable phrase, attributed to Rex Tillerson, his first secretary of state, “a filthy moron” when it comes to understanding politics.
This tension between Trump Genius and Trump Moroni is dangerous for the “Make America Great again” movement that he created and leads.
As a political actor, there is no denial that Trump has an intuitive genius that has enabled him to reformulate American politics. Winning a second mandate in office with a crucial difference has given him absolute authority within his party. For now, Trump can do what you want. The problem is that what he wants is likely to be very harmful to America.
The most obvious example of the self-destructive nature of Trump’s policies is his obsession with tariffs. The US president cannot or will not understand that tariffs are paid by importers and that most of the cost will be passed on to customers. He also considers unpredictability as a virtue. So the tariffs are imposed, raised and then reimped, seemingly with a quarrel. The result is that businesses cannot plan ahead and that consumers and investors are panicking.
In Trump’s first term, when his political authority was weaker and his most conventional advisers, the president’s aides were able to divert some of his worst ideas. Officials sometimes ignored or reinterpreted his instructions, or even removing the letters from his desk, in an effort to contain his instincts.
But in the second deadline, the president has surrounded himself with sycophants who want to “allow Trump to be Trump”. Howard Lutnick, his secretary of trade, assures us that Trump is “the most important, the smartest, the most capable leader in the world.” So the president can move forward with policies that are likely to damage most Americans in direct and tangible ways.
Trump has done many wild things in the past, such as trying to overthrow the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections. But some of his previous actions touched the daily lives of ordinary Americans. Causing a recession, higher inflation or a collision in the stock market would be different. About 60 percent of Americans own shares, often in their pension funds. Many will worry about the last drop in stock prices. Consumer confidence is also falling, while inflation expectations increase.
The economy was rated the most important issue by voters in the last election. But Trump’s assessments of the treatment of the economy have already returned negatively. There may be more pain to come as cuts in federal workforce beyond Washington. Possible cuts in social security or government -funded health benefits would also hit millions.
Choosing fighting with neighbors and allies of America may seem to fall into the category of issues that the average voter can diminish. But the threat to the Canada Appendix (another Moronic idea) has launched an unnecessary trade war with a peaceful neighbor. If Canadians retaliate by forcing the price of oil or electricity exports to the US, ordinary Americans will suffer. Tariffs in Mexico can also raise supermarket prices. About 50 percent of America’s imported fruits come from Mexico. The profits of the three large US car companies can be wiped out of a 25 percent fee for imports from Canada and Mexico.
The economic effects of Trump’s policies are likely to determine the future of his presidency. But Trump is also putting Americans in other ways. The reconciliation of FBI agents and intelligence officers-and the appointment of conspiracy theorists as Director of National Intelligence and FBI leaders-is a recipe for a high profile catastrophe. The establishment of another conspiracy theorist, Robert f Kennedy JR, responsible for the health department creates another set of visible risks.
Trump’s observation released his internal moron on the US government reminds me of a prediction I have heard from a prominent American businessman in January. “If Trump does half the things he promises to do, all this will be blown up. And it will discredit Maga for a generation.”
The visible mechanism for a stroke would be a great loss for Republicans in the next election. But the averages are about two years away. Trump and his minions can do a lot of damage to American institutions, including the electoral system at the time. If the administration starts to fall definitely, Trump is likely to respond with a hunt for redemption and increased authoritarianism.
But the experience in other damaged democracies is that even a partially manipulated system can function quite well to cause electoral losses in the far -right populists. Jair Bolsonaro lost the Brazilian presidential election in 2022 (and has been accused of trying a coup afterwards). The Party of Law and Justice of Poland lost power in the elections in 2023. Victor Orbán of Hungary, who has been prime minister since 2010 and is very admired by Maga Movement, is following in the prior to elections expected next year – while the Hungarian economy fights. There were anti-Orbán demonstrations in Budapest at the weekend.
Right populists can often win the wars of culture. But mistreating the economy is much harder to explain. If Maga makes Americans poorer, Trump and his movement are likely to pay the price.
gideon.rachman@ft.com
