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Mike Johnson is facing a knife-edge vote to retain his job as Speaker of the US House of Representatives as top Republicans try to avoid a chaotic start to Donald Trump’s second era in Washington.
The lower house of Congress will open for business at noon on Friday, with its first task being the election of a new speaker.
Although Johnson, the Louisiana lawmaker who replaced Kevin McCarthy after his ouster in October 2023, remains the favorite and is backed by Donald Trump, Republicans have a majority of just 219 to 215 members, meaning he would need almost unanimous support to be re-elected.
Thomas Massie, a lawmaker from Kentucky, has vowed to oppose Johnson’s re-election, so another Republican defection could jeopardize his position, assuming all Democrats also vote against him.
“Congratulations today to Speaker Mike Johnson, a great man with great skills who is very close to having 100% support,” Trump tweeted on his Truth Social platform on Friday.
“A win for Mike today will be a huge win for the Republican Party.”
The vote is crucial in the short term because the House of Representatives will need a Speaker to certify Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election on Monday, paving the way for his Jan. 20 inauguration.
In the long term, trouble for Johnson to retain the presidency could bode poorly for Trump’s ability to pass his agenda in the House of Representatives, because it would indicate that some Republicans are willing to accede to his wishes and to challenge party discipline.
If Johnson is not elected on Friday’s first ballot, the process could drag on for multiple rounds, as happened in early 2023, when McCarthy was elected speaker after 15 votes and dramatic negotiations with factions within his own party.
Johnson on Thursday met with a group of Republicans who have said they are undecided about whether to back him for president — and expressed confidence he would win them over. “I think tomorrow will go well,” he said.
No Republican other than Massie has said they would vote against him. But dozens of conservatives were outraged before the Christmas holiday when Johnson proposed a government funding deal that required compromise with Democrats to ensure its passage.
However, Johnson has remained very close to Trump and his inner circle in recent weeks, coordinating plans to quickly move his top priorities through Congress, which will make it difficult for any Republican to join Massie and block Johnson.
No other candidate has emerged as a potential rival to Johnson for the speakership, but Republican discontent is concentrated within the House Freedom Caucus, which includes the most ardent hard-line conservatives. Even if Johnson survives the vote for speaker, members of the House Freedom Caucus are expected to remain a thorn in his side as he tries to pass Trump-backed legislation.
