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A ceasefire in Ukraine will dramatically increase the threat of security for the Baltic nations, as Russia will continue with plans to re-armed and redeem troops on NATO’s north-eastern wing, have warned the region’s defense ministers.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which were annexed by the Soviet Union before recovering independence in the 1990s, are concerned that Moscow will not stop in Ukraine after the Trump administration mediates a ceasefire. Baltic nations indicate that the Kremlin has already set plans for increasing military production and additional bodies along their borders.
“We all understand that when the war in Ukraine stops, Russia will redistribute its forces very soon,” Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevku told the Financial Times. “It also means that the threat level will increase significantly very quickly.”
His Lithuanian counterpart, Dovil Šakaliene, made similar remarks while in the UK at the beginning of the week.
“Let’s not have any illusions. Let us not lie that Russia will take place after Ukraine,” she said. “Russia will use this time after a ceasefire to speed its military skills. They already have a large army, trained on the battlefield, which will become even larger.”
The Trump administration has led talks with Russia and Ukraine to end the war, but a complete ceasefire is still seen so far. While Kyiv agreed on an immediate interruption of hostilities in the Black Sea and a 30-day ceasefire supported by the US, Moscow so far has only pledged a pause of attacks on energy infrastructure, saying it would comply with the Black Sea Agreement only after the West raised economic sanctions.
However, a stop in the fighting would give Russia a chance to meet its 2022 plans to gather a strong army of 1.5 million and add a new body of the new army in the north, doubling the number of troops near Finland and the Baltic.
Pevkur said that out of the 600,000 Russian troops currently estimated to be in Ukraine, 300,000 would probably be re -re -remedied. “These men will not turn into different parts of Russia to reap the corn or do something else because the salary they are receiving in the military is like five to 10 times more than they could get to their hometown.”
Baltic countries are particularly concerned about a large -scale military exercise known as Zapad to be held near their borders in Russia and Belarus this fall. Holding every four years, the exercises simulate a conflict with the NATO countries and include tens of thousands of troops, tanks, aircraft and artillery.
Both ministers also warned to rebuild any NATO body from their countries to form a so-called European “security force” to be sent to Ukraine after the conflict as a means of preventing Russia from attacking again.
“We cannot endanger NATO’s eastern wing safety,” the pevur said. “We cannot trap that our forces are somewhat fixed in Ukraine. Then we will have risks on our border.”
NATO eastern nations, including Poland and Romania, have said that they cannot engage in placing troops in Ukraine at the expense of their security. Estonia has also opposed plans from the United Kingdom to redefine British forces for the protection of the Baltic in Ukraine.
Currently, Lithuania is protected by a German brigade which is set to settle on its land in the coming months, Latvia is protected by a multinational Canada -led force and Estonia is protected by a British brigade that can be sent from the United Kingdom to short announcement.
“We have only taken under a thousand troops in the UK in Estonia at the moment,” British Defense Secretary John Healey said earlier this week. “This steady iron engagement for estonia will continue – and will continue because Estonia and our bodies … are on the front line of NATO.”
