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Petroleum prices have further fallen on Monday, while US President Donald Trump signaled that he would push forward with global tariffs, despite plunging stock markets and increasing the fear of the recession.
Raw Brent fell 2.5 percent to $ 63.94 per barrel until the early hours of London-a four-year low and a decrease of 15 percent in the last five days-in an indication of deepening concerns that the global economy is heading towards a sharp slowdown.
Trump’s “ERUTING DAY” announcement on fees last Wednesday was followed a few hours later by a sudden action by the OPEC+ coalition to increase oil production.
“I think this is very serious. I don’t think we’re still in a 2008 world, but definitely (waiting) a significant slowdown in the global economy this year,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.
Some analysts said the decline in oil prices can make them too low for some of the highest cost manufacturers in the US, taking Trump’s promise to increase internal production, or what he has called “exercise, children, exercise”.
However, the president seemed to welcome the raw fall after pledging to reduce costs for American consumers.
In a post on social truth on Monday, Trump wrote: “Oil prices have lowered, interest rates have lowered (slow movement Fed should lower rates!), Food prices have decreased, no inflation, and long time abused US is bringing billions of dollars a week from abuses with tariffs already in the country.”
In a Note on Sunday, Goldman Sachs analysts reduced their oil price prediction in the wake of economists who envision an American “stuck” economy and higher risk of recession. They expect the raw Brent to trade with an average of $ 58 per barrel in 2026 and West Texas Intermediate with $ 55 per barrel.
“The risks for our reduced oil prices are left in weakness because the risk of recession has increased further and because the OPEC+ supply can increase more than we assume,” they added.
“Our economists have also raised the probability of 12-month recession from 35 percent to 45 percent and have shown that they will change their prediction in a recession if the White House implements most of the April 9 tariffs.”
Morgan Stanley, in a Note Monday morning, said the 12.5 percent drop in raw brand between late Wednesday and end Friday had occurred only 24 times before – 22 of which said they were related to recessions.
I am lowering its prediction of the basic issue for oil demand for the second half of this year with about 550,000 barrels a day.
“We appreciate that our previous Brent prediction of the ’60s high dollars’ in (the second half) of the year will no longer be accessible and will change this in the lower $ ’60,” he added.
In a warning for high -cost manufacturers, Ole Hansen, head of the Saxo goods strategy, said: “Dramatic decline in raw oil since last Wednesday … has received prices at levels that can soon see supply to be adversely affected as high -cost manufacturers, especially in the US, forced to reduce their stabilization objectives.”
The decision from eight OPEC+ members to bring plans to change production cuts means that they will increase production by 411,000 B/D in May, from a previous target of 122,000 B/d.
The tensions between members over varying degrees of adhesion of production cuts followed, with Kazakhstan constantly puming over his quota.
Shares in the main oil manufacturers ranked in the UK fell on Monday morning, with shell dropping 7 percent and BP falling 6 percent, subforming the widest market.
