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Russian forces are moving towards Ukraine’s Dnipro region, sidestepping a heavy urban battle expected in the eastern Donetsk region.
Ukraine has been preparing for urban warfare in Pokrovsk, a key logistics and transport hub for the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donetsk region, since the summer.
But Russian forces pushing from the south are now heading west of Pokrovsk and are just under 7 km from taking the highway leading to the Dnipropetrovsk region, according to the Deep State mapping group, which is affiliated with Ukraine’s defense ministry. .
“They realize that they will lose a lot of their forces trying to take Pokrovsk, so they have decided to follow a different strategy and approach from the south and go around it,” said Andriy Cherniak, a senior official of Ukrainian military intelligence, for the Financial Times. on sunday. “They will try to cut off all supplies to Pokrovsk so that our forces can leave there.”
Russia’s Defense Ministry announced on Sunday the capture of the Yantarnoye settlement in the Donetsk region, approximately 50 km south of Pokrovsk, after “active offensive operations”.
“The border of the Dnipropetrovsk region is now approximately 6.5 km away,” Russian military blogger Voenkor Kotenok posted on his Telegram channel on Sunday.
The other major city within Dnipropetrovsk is Pavlograd, a major Ukrainian military base. The region also includes Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth largest city.
How quickly Russian forces are able to take the highway to Dnipropetrovsk depends on the extent of fortifications in the area as well as on Ukrainian manpower, which has been increasingly insufficient.
A Ukrainian soldier whose brigade is fighting in the Pokrovsk area, who spoke to the FT on condition of anonymity, said the terrain would also be a factor, describing it as “deep, muddy and impassable”.
Russian forces gained thousands of square kilometers of the Donetsk region in 2024. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said Russia captured roughly 4,200 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory last year, most of which was in the region of Donetsk.
This moment has put them in a position to take the highway to the Dnipropetrovsk region, which would cut off the Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk as well as force the Ukrainian forces to defend from two directions at once.
“They are trying to take the maximum territory, so that when their forces are eventually exhausted, they have something to negotiate with,” Cherniak said.
Ukraine announced on Saturday that it had taken its first North Korean prisoners of war from Russia’s southern Kursk region, providing further evidence of Pyongyang’s involvement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the captured men were receiving medical help, adding that “the world needs to know the truth about what is happening”.
Ukraine launched a renewed push into Russia’s Kursk region last week, after losing about half of the territory it captured in its August incursion. The occupation of Russian territory is still seen by Ukraine and its allies as key to any possible negotiations.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Seoul on Monday that Kursk was important to Ukraine. “It’s certainly something that would factor into any negotiations that might happen in the next year,” he added.
Animation by Steven Bernard
