Unlock the White House View Newspaper FREE
Your guide to what the 2024 American elections mean for Washington and the world
Under normal circumstances, Cook Islands only draw attention from honeymoon, green activists and Kiwi diplomats. This is because the distant Pacific country has a security agreement with New Zealand (and, with the extension, Western allies) -A stunning beaches paved with palm trees threatened by growing seas.
But we do not live in normal periods; US President Donald Trump is destroying post -war geopolitical order. And this week Mark Brown, the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands, entered into an investment agreement with China.
The New Zealand government screaming loudly into horror, fearing revenge by Trump. But Cook’s islands look impatient. And these land points in the Pacific have become a powerful symbol of how geopolitical sand is being moved.
As Hurricane Trump hides across the globe, two main themes are becoming clear: America’s leaders are determined to strengthen the US growth at all costs, whether environmental, social or diplomatic; And they are just as determined to use hegemonic power, confusing military, financial, technological and commercial interests together.
As a result, other nations face three elections: become a vassal of the imperial power of America; oppose it by ally with American rivals such as China and Russia; Or copy the Cook Islands and try to protect your bets.
Some have already made their choice. Get nicaragua. Last month, between Trump’s threats to conquer Panama and/or China from its famous channel, the Nicaragian government changed its Constitution to enable the construction of a waterway linking the Atlantic and Pacific. This can present an alternative to the Panama Canal, and indicates that Nicaragua is doubled to be in China’s camp.
On the other side of the spectrum, Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has moved to tribute mode. During a visit to Washington last week, he praised “Trump’s efforts to bring peace to the world”, and promised to invest $ 1TN in the US and buy Oodles of Liquid American Natural Gas, too.
I predict that Tokyo will also soon try to strengthen Jenin (to impose US complaints for competitive depreciation) and may even buy long or permanent US treasures (to “pay” for US military protection).
Meanwhile, Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, has also been in Washington this week, pledging to increase LNG imports and US aircraft. And Britain has just tied up with America at an artificial intelligence summit in Paris.
When I recently talked to Davos with Pham Minh Chính, the Prime Minister of Vietnam, he was also cheating on what tribes to offer Trump an attempt to distract the US president from the fact that Vietnam now has the third largest excess of goods bilateral (mainly because global companies have moved production there to avoid US sanctions in China).
“We’re looking to buy 50 to 100 planes (from USA) and other high-tech items,” he said, stressing that he would also “play golf all day” with Trump on Mar-a -lago “if good for (national) interests”. He also has another possible “gift”: Trump is reported to be interested in a large casino investment, diplomats say. If so, this may be essential.
However, the problem for Vietnam – like any other nation – is that Trump is now so capricious that no one knows for sure what will really guarantee security. In the terms of traders, the agreement is impossible to “appreciate” for a long term – for governments and investors alike.
Thus, there is also a growing temptation to slip into a strategy of “flexing to the ruler, and then go to your way,” to quote Buharan’s proverb that was once (in) famous among the silk road traders . In other words, make interpretive tributes while protecting your bets.
Indeed, this is probably the only reasonable thing for most countries to do, according to the global capital allocation project (a site researcher on hegemonic economic power that is filled with useful tables showing which countries are the most vulnerable to American and Chinese hegemonic power). Diversification inputs, this note, is essential if countries will increase “economic security” in a capricious world.
This protective trend has consequences. One is that trade between non-non-countries is the swelling, increasing the overall volumes of global trade, despite Trump. Another is that supply chains are getting longer, potentially increased by costs. And one -third is that Chinese influence tentacles are being secretly spreading – even on distant Pacific beaches – as Beijing almost looks like a more predictable, global force.
Ironically, this flies in the face of Trump’s declared desire to catch Beijing’s wings. Indeed, prospective historians can label his entire strategy as self-esteem. But now the president seems to be convinced that his lever is supported to act in an unpredictable and imperial way.
Perhaps he will eventually realize that these tactics also create a need to protect, precisely because no one can “appreciate” peace – or trust America. But don’t bet for him. Meanwhile, expect those interpretive tribes to continue to pour, accompanied by fake smiles.
gillian.tett@ft.com
