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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
“The first term everyone was fighting me,” Donald Trump said before Christmas. “In this term, everyone wants to be my friend.” He has a point. Eight years ago, Trump faced an angry protest movement that flooded Washington and resisted his short-lived “Muslim ban” in the days after his inauguration. This time there is barely a glance. The mood of the opposition has gone from outraged to depressed.
The Democrats are in a mess. In 2017, they had Nancy Pelosi, the most feared leader of the party in decades. Pelosi’s last major act was to help force Joe Biden to resign last summer. Before that, however, she impeached Trump twice and maintained an iron grip on her party. This time, Democrats lack a strategy. The default position of cooperating with Trump where they can and against him where they must is a recipe for division. Without a helmsman, the party is in a Trumpian sea.
Nor will the Republicans act as a check. The most effective block against Trump last time was John McCain, the late Arizona senator. But for McCain, Trump would have repealed Obamacare. At the time, there was a sizable group of Republicans in the Senate who could stand up to Trump. Of the seven who voted to impeach Trump in early 2021, four — Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Richard Burr of North Carolina and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania — are gone. The other three — Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana — are not enough to overturn their party’s majority.
Today’s Supreme Court looks like Maga in robes. In 2017, the court had a 5-4 conservative majority. But one of its Republican-appointed justices, Anthony Kennedy, was often inclined to side with the liberals. With a 6-3 majority this time, the court looks more like a rubber stamp than a check to an unruly executive. Trump has already given up. On TikTok, he has ignored a bipartisan ban passed by Congress that was upheld by a court last week. His defiance recalls Andrew Jackson, America’s seventh president, who was reportedly told “now let him do it” by the chief justice after the court had stopped the seizure of Cherokee land. Jackson won.
Trump is already playing the Jacksonian card. In one of his executive orders on Monday, he struck down the 14th amendment that gives automatic citizenship to anyone born on American soil. The ball is now in the court, so to speak. As it is with TikTok. With whose army would the judges enforce a ruling that Trump chose to ignore? The justices gave Trump almost carte blanche last summer when they decreed presidential immunity for any “official act” — a category so vaguely defined that Trump can do whatever he wants.
Would Trump seek court, or congressional, permission to invade the Panama Canal? Although he would be violating two treaties, the question answers itself. A similar defense has involved the media. In 2017, the Washington Post led the industry by adopting the motto “Democracy Dies in Darkness.” Last week it added the mission statement, “Storytelling that’s compelling for all of America.” Its owner, Jeff Bezos, was among the plutocrats at Trump’s inauguration. His company, Amazon Prime, is paying first lady Melania Trump $40 million to help make a documentary about herself. Count me surprised if this pays off commercially.
So who will stand up to Trump? Allies are as resigned today as they were skeptical in Trump’s first term. Then Angela Merkel of Germany was first in Europe among equals. Today, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, who was also at Trump’s inauguration, is the continent’s most confident leader. Britain’s Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, like others, is falling over himself to get into Trump’s good graces. Denmark’s government might have expected some solidarity after Trump declared he wanted to annex Greenland. So far, however, the protests have been muted. If Trump can covet an ally’s territory with impunity, the only check on him would appear to be himself.
He is now at the height of his power. But power tends to slip. In 2026, the Republicans could lose control of Congress, at which point Trump would become a lame duck. That, at least, is the story Democrats are invested in. But Trump’s opponents should know that they will inherit a very different country if they win the White House next time. Trump is remaking America in his image. You can’t step into the same river twice.
edward.luce@ft.com
