The Great American Alcohol Debate

Unlock Editor’s Roundup for free

Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The writer is a contributing columnist, based in Chicago

“Happy alcohol holidays”. A neon sign flashes in the window of one of the many seasonal bars that line the streets around Chicago’s Wrigley Field. Pop-ups are doing a roaring trade as Chicagoans prepare to celebrate that quintessential alcoholic holiday, New Year’s Eve.

They’re ringing in what could be an important year in America’s great alcohol debate: Does alcohol do more to kill us or keep us alive? True believers on both sides are grappling with the planned new drinking guidelines: Should Americans dramatically cut back on their drinking? Or is a modest amount healthier than never drinking at all?

Many young Americans are already voting with their mocktails: The Pew Research Center found that the percentage of 18- to 34-year-olds who say they sometimes drink has dropped 10 points in the past two decades, from 72 to 62 percent.

And those who say alcohol is harmful are increasingly winning the public relations battle. Gallup found that 45 percent of Americans thought that drinking one or two drinks a day — the current U.S. guidelines for women and men, respectively — was unhealthy. That’s up 17 points since 2018. Among those aged 18 to 34, 65 percent say alcohol is bad for their health.

Overall, US pure alcohol consumption per capita “fell to its lowest level since 2002, after peaking during the pandemic,” according to IWSR, the global beverage data provider. IWSR predicts that the non-alcoholic market in the US will have a compound annual growth rate of 18 percent in volume between 2024 and 2028. “It has become the norm to have soft drinks on the menu, and people who drink them are no longer standing out as a sore thumb,” says Carrie May, founder of the nonprofit Chicago AF, which promotes sober socializing.

This is perhaps less true at alcoholic holidays: when I tried to order a soft drink at an open window, I was offered a drink named after a children’s character – or hot chocolate.

Researchers acknowledge that many people decide how to drink based on personal experience rather than government guidelines that have hardly changed in decades. I’m full now, but the guidelines are the same as when I moved to Washington DC nearly 30 years ago – and brought back so much South African wine that I had to get a liquor license. I didn’t expect new instructions to change my habits.

But recently, policymakers around the world have taken a tougher line on alcohol. Two years ago, the World Health Organization said no amount of alcohol was safe. Canada funded a study that found “alcohol-related consequences” for the drinker or others were likely to be avoided with just two drinks a week or less. However, Ottawa has not adopted this guideline and continues to publish much higher guidelines for “low-risk drinking”: three drinks per day for men and two for women.

Ahead of revisions to US alcohol recommendations, proponents of “no amount is safe” are facing off against those who say moderate drinking has health benefits. Two rival groups are advising government departments that will choose the 2025-2030 guidelines.

One of those groups, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, found the evidence to be “imperfect” but still concluded with “moderate certainty” that moderate consumers had lower all-cause mortality and higher risk lower cardiovascular death than they. who never drank.

A special panel is expected to release its report soon — and lobbyists on both sides say it could present evidence to support sharply reduced consumption guidelines. The alcohol industry is already lobbying against this. “If you throw out the science and tell consumers there’s no safe level of alcohol consumption, you run the risk of them ignoring the guidelines altogether,” Amanda Berger of the Distilled Spirits Council of the US told me.

Dramatically cut consumption guidelines could also face political backlash. Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz slammed rumors of new restrictions last year, posting on X: “What is it with liberals wanting to control every damn aspect of your life? If they want us to drink two beers a week, honestly they can kiss my ass.”

In Wrigleyville, the neighborhood cannabis dispensary now has a long line. Americans may be drinking less, but Gallup found twice as many U.S. adults were smoking marijuana than in 2013. If it’s not booze, it could be drugs.

In any case, we shouldn’t worry about what the government thinks is best for us on New Year’s Eve. There will be plenty of time for that in dry January.