The unimaginable perspective of Ukraine fighting without weapons, equipment or American intelligence seems to be reality as the White House on Monday announced that it will shorten military aid to Kyiv.
A senior Ukrainian intelligence official said Ukraine will probably finish the latest US military supplies in “two or three months”.
“After that, it will be very difficult for us,” the Financial Times official told. “There will be a total collapse, but we will be forced to withdraw from the areas faster.”
In the fourth year of Russia’s full occupation, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops are removing constant Russian attacks from the trenches of Eastern and South Ukraine. Along the 1,000km front line, the US military aid will have widespread consequences for the raped army, even if European allies complement some of the lost equipment.
Washington announced his decision to suspend military aid three days after a collision in the Oval Office between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy driven by the Ukrainian leader’s refusal to agree on a ceasefire with no guarantee to prevent Russia from the next aggression.
The White House said on Monday that she was “banning and revising” her military aid to ensure that Ukraine’s leadership was “engaged” in a peace deal.
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Over the past three years, US military support reached $ 65.9 billion, according to the State Department. While Congress adopted about $ 175 billion, only part of this went directly to Ukraine. Some were used for other purposes such as Ukrainian troops training in the US
The support has been wide from the shipments of artillery shells and armored vehicles to the provision of sophisticated air protection systems, mobile vehicles, anti-tank mines and long-range missiles.
Important for Ukraine, this support involves the division of intelligence, which is reported to have not been suspended so far.
“The impact is generally difficult to appreciate because there is a fair amount of US support that is not publicly discussed,” says Michael Kofman, an elderly military analyst and associate at Carnegie Endowment for international peace, a US opinion.
European allies have increased their efforts in recent days to raise funds and buy military equipment for Ukraine. But the continent continues to fight with increasing weapons production, and some major devices remain unique to the SH.BA
A lack of intercept rockets for the five systems of patriots made by the US in use by Ukraine would represent a major blow to the country’s defensive skills, just as Russia has been expanding its drone campaign and deep missiles within Ukraine.
Ukraine Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Tuesday that “Patriot is currently the only system to overthrow Russian ballistic missiles”.
If the country’s army were forced to stop the use of the most sophisticated air defense system in its arsenal, “eventually, Ukraine will have to make a difficult advantage,” says Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst that monitors the black group’s black group war. “Do you protect an air field, a power plant, or a weapon factory?”
In the first line, where most of the fighting now unfolds using a dizzying set of explosive drones flying in soldiers, the impact is likely to last several weeks to feel.
While the vast majority of the drones used by Ukrainian troops are now produced domestically, the military still uses a wide range of US weapons and vehicles that require continuous maintenance and a sustainable course of spare parts.
A lack of artillery shells can be partially offset by European efforts, planning to produce up to 2 million artillery shells in 2025.
“My overall appearance is that we will start to see a huge impact within two months, and will mainly relate to Ukraine’s ability to perform precise strikes,” Kofman said.
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Numerous Rocket Himars offered by the US have enabled Ukraine to destroy high -value targets such as command posts and logistics centers on Russia’s territory.
On Monday, Ukrainian special forces released footage of a strike in Himar using cluster ammunition that destroyed a modern self-soused Russian “Malva” Howitzer.
“We have no real substitutes for the Himara,” says Pavlo Narozhny, a Ukrainian military analyst and co -founder of Reactive Post, an organization that supports Ukrainian artillery units.
Launchers Himars have also enabled Ukraine to use long -range missiles atacams to hit targets in Russia, up to 300 km away. Narozhny said that Kyiv has distant missiles in the UK and French Storm and with the head beam, “but they are not the same, they are much slower and easier to intercede.”
Without the US support, “the front will not collapse, but Russia will continue to progress,” Narozhny said.
While not part of the official support of the US-prohibited US, the most damaging movement immediately to the front line units in Ukraine would be a closure of Elon Musk’s Starlink System, a satellite energy provider whose use has become ubiquitous among Ukraine forces thanks to its speed and reliability.
“If Starlink is closed, the problems will start immediately,” wrote Yehor Firsov, a former Ukrainian deputy who now serves in the army, wrote in late February. “Infantry in protective scratches, intelligence, drone and artillery crews, brigades and battalion headquarters. . . Everyone uses starlink. “
While Ukrainian forces can and use radio communications, battlefield decisions rely heavily on an influx of video footage and photos that require a sustainable connection of the broad generation.
“It would be a hit. “I mean, we are fighting in the Kursk region and there is no star there.”
Washington’s stunning decision to suspend help comes after Ukraine has accelerated efforts to develop its skills.
“I said maybe a year ago that we have to train here in Ukraine as if the United States disappears,” said Serhiy Prytula, head of one of the largest Ukrainian fundraising organizations for the military.
A few hours before Washington announces his decision to halt military support for Ukraine, the politician and volunteer said: “We are very grateful for all the help given to the US for Ukraine, but we must take care of ourselves, develop our defense industry with our European partners.”
Visualization of data from Amy was bornmap from Aditi bhandari and illustration from Iaan bott
