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Wall Street banks have reduced their targets for the main US shares meter over the past two weeks, as fear increases for possible economic consequences from President Donald Trump’s trade war.
At least 10 banks, including JPMORGAN, Bank of America and Evercore ISI, have shortened their estimates for the S&P 500 index a week since Trump’s decision to set a 10 percent initial task in most US imports and higher “reciprocal fees” sent shocking waves through financial markets.
S&P 500 has fallen more than 7 percent in very volatile trading since the initial taxes were announced on April 2, and 14 percent since the touch of a high record on February 19th. Trump has since stopped reciprocal tariffs and has created an engraving for smartphones and some other electronics.
But economists say the uncertainty caused by rapid turns in trade policy can slow economic growth, or even cause a recession-something that would hit the revenue of listed US companies.
“The feeling of Goldilocks instead of entering this year has given him the way to remove the uncertainty,” said Citigroup Scott Chonert analyst in a note.
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The average Wall Street Target of the Year S&P 500 now stands at 6.012 – compared to 6,539 at the end of last year. S&P 500 ended this week at 5,283.
New forecasts mean that, despite increasing concerns about the slowdown of economic growth, strategists still expect the index to increase 14 percent in the coming months. It would mark a profit of only 2 percent for 2025, a major slowdown from back-back gatherings more than 20 percent in 2023 and 2024.
The newly careful tone of the banks marks a humble overthrow since the beginning of the year, when many market participants had been waiting for lower taxes and easier regulation under a Republican administration to increase corporate profits.
Citigroup on Friday said he expects S&P 500 to end the year at 5,800, from a previous 6,500 call. The bank also reduced its 2025 profit rating per share to $ 255 from $ 270, just below the average forecast of $ 262, says Bloomberg data.
Chonert said the latest sharp fall for US capital can become “the first bear market specifically caused by US presidential actions”.
JPMORGAN lowered its objective “The Base of the Issue” to 7 in 5,200 April from 6,500, assuming “partial” relief in fees. “Although we do not believe that the food of the US is over,” the bank wrote at the time, “this shock (the day of ERITION) came at a time when the appreciation was rich, the positioning was crowded and the leadership was particularly narrow.”
Peter Berezin in BCA Research, who has the lowest target of the 2025 price for S&P 500 among the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, said in the middle of February that he expects the index to close this year at about 4,450, implying a 15 percent drop from current levels. In early March he said an American recession is likely to begin within the next three months.
“There are a lot of group thoughts on Wall Street,” Berezin said.
