The recent disintegration of a SpaceX test flight was a spectacular sight as broken rocket parts trailed across the Caribbean sky like tendrils of jellyfish on Thursday evening.
But some experts say that focusing on this dazzling light spectacle, as many people and media did, is a sign of a lack of understanding of the ecological consequences of these spacecraft failures.
Moriba Jah, a professor of aerospace engineering at the University of Texas Austin, compares it to marveling at the beauty of an atomic bomb’s mushroom cloud.
“To be fascinated by the magic of the rubble (means) not recognizing what it means,” Jah said. “This stuff can damage ecosystems and impact populations.”
There is also a more immediate threat, as this incident shows: several tons of burning wreckage rained down on the water and, although the likelihood is slim, perhaps even on an unfortunate piece of land.
Airspace risks
Thursday’s test of Starship – which consisted of two parts, the upper stage Starship (in this case Ship 33) and the lower stage Super Heavy Booster – lasted about eight and a half minutes. During this time, viewers saw the most powerful rocket ever built successfully separate both stages, and do so impressively Super Heavy Booster’s “stick” catch.
In a social media video shot in Turks and Caicos, debris can be seen streaking across the sky after the new Starship rocket shattered during a test flight.
But shortly afterwards, SpaceX said it had lost connection to the high school. Finally, confused and awestruck people in Turks and Caicos saw their evening sky illuminated by the wreckage of Ship 33.
Elon Musk, billionaire CEO of SpaceX, recommended The cause was “an oxygen/fuel leak in the cavity above the ship’s engine firewall.” SpaceX says it is investigating what went wrong in coordination with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which a… “Mishap Investigation,” as happened when a test flight of the spacecraft also exploded in 2023.
The flight path began in Boca Chica, Texas and headed east over the Caribbean Sea. During such space flights, the airspace is warned in advance, but the loss of communications triggered another, more urgent warning.
The FAA said in a statement it “briefly slowed and diverted aircraft” to where the debris fell. The result was delays, detours or reversals of flights.
Some pilots were even able to see the fireworks from their cockpit.
And for Jah, the risks, even if small, are not fully communicated to air travelers.
“If you and I were to get on a plane and someone said, ‘Hey, there’s a one in 10,000 chance that you won’t make it,’ then I won’t get on the plane,” Jah testified to CBC News Austin. offers some hypothetical opportunities.
Boley agrees and says the risks and costs of the space industry are being exported to the aviation industry.
A separation is difficult to imagine
This flight is believed to have aborted over the Atlantic Ocean and there have been no reports of injuries or sightings of the debris.
Aaron Boley, co-director at the Outer Space Institute and an expert in space sustainability, says we don’t even have any idea how these ships break apart.
“The size of the debris field, how much debris, how much deadly debris – that is, how many chunks are falling at a speed that can cause significant damage – these are things that are not well understood at this point,” Boley also said Associate Professor at the University of British Columbia.
Jah agrees, calling the simulations “miserably bad at predicting anything with any meaningful accuracy” and relying on a “strategy of hope” that a breakup won’t cause harm.
“Designated danger area”
Even the most successful end to this Starship launch would end up on water anyway – but far away, with a splashdown in the southern Indian Ocean.
The Splash Zone is a “designated hazard area” where it is believed that there is a lower risk to human life in such remote areas. However, even planned land flights lead to disruptions for the airline. Says the Australian airline Qantas SpaceX’s re-entry has caused delays in the last few weeks while flying over the Indian Ocean.
Splashing down there “is the least worst option,” Boley said, giving people a chance to know roughly where and when things might fall.
Worst of all, debris falls when there are uncontrolled explosions like Thursday’s, which is a roll of the dice.
“They just assume that these pieces are spread out over such a large area that they are unlikely to actually hit anyone and cause damage,” Boley said.
Riskier future
Because of this uncertainty, experts say there is no clear understanding of what impact rocket debris has on the marine environment.
Research from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand conducted an investigation in 2016 into the potential short- and long-term threats that rocket debris poses to nearby marine life.
The expert panel concluded that with 10 launches, successful or not, each producing 40 tons of debris, “there is still a low risk.”
But more launches mean more risk.
“With 100 launches the risks could be moderate and with 1,000 they could become high,” they warned.
Experts say stopping space research is not the solution – but given the pace at which the industry is growing, more emphasis needs to be placed on calculating the risk to the environment.
“What statistics will we stick to?” asks Jah. “What kind of testing will we need to enable humans to successfully explore space without compromising environmental sustainability?”
