Customs now linger like the blade of a executioner about the Canadian economy. And US President Donald Trump said that he falls the ax on Saturday.
If the details of his plan actually match the rhetoric, this would not only change the economy, but also the relationship between Canada and the USA over several generations.
The president insists that he is progressing with a delivery of 25 percent in Canada and Mexico, including one oil for a softer tariff.
He decided and tried not to negotiate, he says.
“We are not looking for a concession,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Friday. “We’ll see what happens.”
Projected decline in GDP, balloon deficit, debts
Here, too, we did not see the small print, but if it matches his words, the nightmare scenario that lurks about Canada’s economy would unleash this.
The former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page projects a contraction in the neighborhood of the 2009 recession, somewhere between 2 and 2.5 percent of GDP, together with a national ballooning -national deficit and debt.
But an even greater story is rewritten. After 90 years in which the US connection to the United States increases when Trump rises forward, he would interrupt Canada-USA freely far more than a few decades. He would end an era that extends longer.
Canada and the United States have steadily built up closer economic relationships since 1935 when they complained of endless depression.
Which past generations were built
On November 18, 1935 the New York Times reported After a full year of negotiations, the countries would remove hundreds of tariffs and consumers to see cheaper radio devices, cars, clothing, fruit and vegetables.
The integration was continued despite the occasionally Disputes – with a car option in 1965then a free trade agreement in 1987And other trade agreements in 1994 and 2018 with Mexico.
Canada has just taken his lot with the USA in the emerging global reorganization several youngest moves The poisoned It is Relationship With China, but seemed to secure a place in the American tent.
A high -towering new trade barrier would mean that there is no orbit. There is no tent. And the world Canadians would not be recognizable.
The geopolitical order is a longer -term question. In the short term, there are salary sections that you can earn to eat mouth, mortgage and rent.
Of all the risks of pain in the economy, only a few are at risk than Canada’s No. 2 Export to the USA – the car sector.
Auto industry warns of the lines of production still quietly
To repeat: we didn’t see the small print.
However, a 25 percent tariff would mean a quick standstill with the early days of pandemic and the border blockades of Trucker 2022, said a representative of the industry.
“It would end the industry throughout North America-within the week,” said Flavio Volpe, head of the Canadian car partner lobby.
President Donald Trump warns that he wants to build a “collective bargaining wall” for the United States and says that a 25 percent tariff will take place on Canada on Saturday. Flavio Volpe, President of the manufacturer of Automotive Parts Manufacturer and member of the Council of the Prime Minister in Canada-USA, warns “Nobody in the USA will make cars”.
If you are looking for a silver strip, there is not much to do.
Scold hard enough, and maybe you will see subtle signs in what Trump said on Friday. It was barely noticeable, but when Trump was asked whether he was still ready for negotiations, he used the words “not now” and “We will see what happens”.
The stock exchange also sent Trump a subtle message on Friday afternoon. The Dow Jones dived three quarters, a modest but sudden drop.
If something Trump could dissuade, it is the actual economy that fear that a self-inflicted wound could damage its public-because the congress does not stop it and the dishes probably cannot. According to trade in-laws.
On the other hand, Trump insists that he is ready for some pain. He said reporters on Friday that he would expect short -term disorders when he has reoriented the economy.
And if he bluffs?
Even if Trump is returned after a few days, a temporary tariff can harm. Companies will have heard the news of Washington loudly and clearly: Invested them outside of America at their risk.
This is actually Trump’s longstanding trade policy for steroids. He has had unpredictability in cross -border trade for years.
His allies are clearly above: If companies are worried, they can simply shift production to the USA. It is Trump’s goal. The unpredictability is a function, not a mistake.
That is why the new North American trade pact has embedded uncertainty. Trump’s team suddenly existed minor New negotiationsand welcomed less legal protection for Investors.
In the past few weeks, Canada has announced a number of guidelines to combat drug gangs and cross -border migration. Several members of Trump’s team celebrated itGreeting progress.
But there he was on Friday. In the Oval Office, which vangers to stay with something he loves when it comes to public order, his greatest love: tariffs.
“It is one of the most beautiful words in the dictionary,” he said on the eve of an executive campaign that could reconcile the economic map of North America.
This Sunday, Cross asks Country Checkup:
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