Confirming what many observers have concluded, the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom says Israel may decide to stay in southern Lebanon beyond the 60-day withdrawal period stipulated in a ceasefire.
Failure to withdraw within 60 days would be another violation of the US-French-backed ceasefire agreement reached on November 27 between Lebanon and Israel.
Israel has already violated the agreement hundreds of times.
But what does Israel’s failure to withdraw from South Lebanon mean after this 60-day period? Here’s what you need to know.
What’s going on?
Since the cease-fire, Hezbollah has stopped firing rockets into Israel, and Israel has stopped its relentless bombing of the suburbs of Beirut, the eastern Bekaa Valley, and the south.
But Israeli troops are still in the south, blowing up and destroying homes and other infrastructure.
They also prevented people from returning to their homes in the south, shot at Lebanese citizens and killed at least 33 Lebanese residents in the past month.
Israel is supposed to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within 60 days from November 27, to be replaced by UNIFIL troops, followed by the Lebanese army.
But Israel now claims that Hezbollah’s extensive weapons in the south and its efforts to rebuild may cause them to “reconsider” the withdrawal timeline.
What happens if they don’t keep their promise?
Nothing.
There is no mechanism to implement the ceasefire agreement other than the resumption of hostilities.
Sources at a Western embassy told Al Jazeera that the only guarantees of implementation were US promises that Israel would comply.
Hezbollah may apparently resume firing rockets into Israel, but they are unlikely to want to engage again.
Hezbollah previously responded to Israeli violations by firing a warning missile at a military area in the Kfarchouba Hills on December 2, which landed in open space and caused no casualties.
Israel retaliated by killing nine people in Lebanon.
What are the terms of the ceasefire?
Israel will withdraw all its troops from South Lebanon in 60 days and Hezbollah will move its military infrastructure north of the Litani River with the Lebanese army to be deployed in southern Lebanon.
What about all the southerners who want to go home?
After the ceasefire agreement, people left the makeshift shelters – mostly located in schools across the country – that had sheltered them for more than two months.
Staff at a shelter Al Jazeera visited in Sidon, southern Lebanon, said that by 10am on the day of the ceasefire, all displaced persons had left to go home.
But many are still not at home.
On the second day of the ceasefire, Israel’s Arabic-language military spokesman effectively declared the entire south a no-go zone.
Some people say they visited their villages on the first day of the ceasefire only to be blocked from returning.
Many southerners are either in villages as close to their villages as possible or are staying with families in areas where the Israelis are not occupying or detaining people.
What else happened?
On Christmas Day, Israel struck the Bekaa Valley between the towns of Talia and Hizzine in the Baalbek region.
Acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati has called for a ceasefire monitoring committee to pressure Israel to respect the terms of the ceasefire, but it has had little effect so far.
Not only has Israel violated the ceasefire by continuing to attack, but they have been pushed even deeper into Lebanese territory.
On December 26, Israeli forces moved up to Wadi al-Hujeir, eight kilometers (five miles) from the UN-defined Blue Line that separates Lebanon from Israel.
What is UNIFIL doing about it?
UNIFIL issued a statement on December 26, calling for a halt to “actions that jeopardize the fragile cessation of hostilities.”
He called for the “timely withdrawal” of Israeli forces and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces in southern Lebanon, as well as the implementation of UN resolution 1701, which requires Hezbollah to move its forces north of the Litani River and Israel under The Blue Line.
UNIFIL also expressed “concern at the continued destruction” by Israeli forces “in residential areas, agricultural lands and road networks in southern Lebanon.”
