Bogotá, Colombia – On January 10, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will be sworn in for a third term, after an election contest with allegations of fraud and repression.
But as Venezuela prepares for the controversial inauguration, Maduro has repeatedly spent time in state media addressing an old adversary: former United States President Donald Trump.
Trump will be sworn in for a second term on January 20, just days after Maduro.
The two men frequently traded insults during Trump’s first term, from 2017 to 2021. But after Trump’s recent re-election in November, Maduro struck a surprising tone.
He publicly congratulated Trump and called the Republican’s second term a “new beginning.” He also invited Trump to foster a relationship steeped in “respect, common sense dialogue and understanding.”
Experts say the comments suggest the two strongman-style leaders may forge a different bond this time around.
This could be particularly critical for Maduro, who faces mounting pressure after his controversial election, including from the US.
“It seems that Maduro is leaving the door open for a more pragmatic approach from the Trump administration,” said Laura Dib, a Venezuela expert at the Washington Office on Latin America, a US-based research and advocacy organization.
‘Maximum Pressure’ campaign
However, it remains unclear how Trump will proceed when it comes to Venezuela.
During his first term in office, Trump pursued a “maximum pressure” strategy against Maduro in an apparent attempt to oust the socialist leader.
Trump, a right-wing leader, had taken an adversarial approach to socialist and communist countries such as China and Cuba, even pushing back efforts to normalize relations with the latter.
But a growing humanitarian crisis in Venezuela — and persistent accusations of government repression — paved the way for Trump to go further than previous administrations in his efforts against Maduro.
He increased sanctions against Venezuela’s oil sector, froze the assets of Maduro’s inner circle and even offered a reward of up to $15 million for information that could lead to the arrest of the Venezuelan president.
In addition, when Maduro faced a contested election in 2018, Trump recognized a rival claim to the presidency from then-opposition leader Juan Guaido.
“Maduro is an illegitimate ruler, a tyrant who brutalizes his people,” Trump said in his 2020 State of the Union address as he offered praise to Guaido. “But Maduro’s grip on tyranny will break and break.”
“Something must be done differently”
At first glance, Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, may signal a return to this hardline approach.
Rubio, part of whose family fled Cuba as refugees, has long been a critic of the governments in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. He has previously advocated tougher sanctions.
But analysts suspect Trump will back the same “maximum pressure” strategy that failed to oust Maduro and contributed to a record exodus of Venezuelan migrants and refugees.
Some critics blame Trump’s oil sanctions against Venezuela for worsening its economic crisis, which helped fuel the exodus. The United Nations now estimates that more than 7.77 million Venezuelans have fled their country’s borders.
The number of Venezuelans entering the U.S. without authorization has also increased, increasing by nearly 17 percent each year from 2018 to 2022. The U.S.-based population is estimated to total about 320,000 people.
Meanwhile, Trump has made stopping the “immigrant invasion” of the US a central goal of his second term.
“I don’t think the Trump administration can take power and try to do exactly the same thing it did in 2019 and 2020,” said Benigno Alarcón, director of the political studies center at Andrés Bello Catholic University in Caracas, Venezuela. “Something has to be done differently.”
With Venezuelans among the main nationalities crossing the US-Mexico border irregularly, Trump’s policies toward Maduro are likely to be influenced by his interest in curbing immigration.
“The focus on Venezuela seems to be through the lens of migration,” Dib said of Trump’s second term.
Handling Venezuelan migration
The question remains whether Trump will work with Maduro to achieve his goals.
Trump is reportedly facing pressure from energy lobbyists to resume diplomatic relations with oil-rich Venezuela.
And experts say Trump will need Maduro’s cooperation if he hopes to implement his “mass deportation” plan, expelling millions of undocumented immigrants from the US.
Venezuela has refused to accept deportation flights from the US since February, after the North American country reinstated some Trump-era sanctions on its economy.
Citing anonymous sources, The Washington Post reported in November that Maduro’s government may be willing to resume deportation flights under Trump — but only if Trump offers economic relief in return.
Supporters of Maduro’s government have argued that relief from US sanctions could help stabilize the country and reduce the exodus.
But Tamara Taraciuk Broner, a Venezuela expert at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank focused on Latin America, is skeptical of that argument. She believes that the main cause of Venezuela’s instability is Maduro himself.
“People are not going to stay in Venezuela because of more oil production and money coming in (when) there is no guarantee that that money will flow to people who are suffering,” Taraciuk said.
She noted that Venezuela’s disputed presidential election on July 28 coincided with a surge in the desire to leave.
Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, controlled by Maduro’s allies, declared him the winner within hours of polls closing, without giving the usual precinct-level breakdown of votes.
This lack of transparency has led to mistrust and accusations of voter fraud against Maduro’s government. Protests erupted and Maduro responded by unleashing a wave of repression that resulted in the deaths of 28 people and the arrest of nearly 2,000 others.
In August, as the crackdown unfolded, a poll by research firm Meganálisis found that about 40 percent of Venezuelans thought they might leave the country.
That political crisis, Taraciuk said, explained Venezuelans’ reasons for migrating elsewhere.
“People are leaving again for political reasons,” she added. “And the expectation is that migration will increase even more after January 10 if there is no transition of power.”
‘Turn the page of the elections’
The controversial presidential race has caused even Maduro himself to face the political consequences.
The election’s lack of transparency was widely criticized, even by Maduro’s allies. The leftist leaders of Colombia and Brazil, for example, initially refused to recognize Maduro’s victory.
Instead, they joined international calls for a split of the number of votes.
Colombia recently announced that a representative will attend Maduro’s inauguration in January, which analysts said is a move to preserve diplomatic relations between the neighboring countries.
Under diplomatic pressure, the Maduro administration has released hundreds of arrested protesters and announced last week that it would review the cases of many more.
With Maduro increasingly isolated, Trump’s return to the US presidency could pose an additional challenge.
The Venezuelan leader’s decision to release some prisoners could be a sign that he may be willing to compromise with Trump, Dib said. But Maduro may also be motivated by a desire to repair his public image.
“What I think Maduro is most interested in is turning the page on the July 28 election and maintaining some kind of authority in relation to the international community,” Dib said.
She pointed to the October 2023 Barbados Agreement as evidence that Maduro is willing to negotiate, even with his staunch international rivals.
That year, Maduro struck a deal with the current US president, Democrat Joe Biden, to ease some sanctions and allow limited oil sales from Venezuela in exchange for free and fair elections.
The US ultimately felt that Venezuela did not comply with the terms of the Barbados Agreement. But Dib said the deal itself could be seen as a hopeful sign.
“If we’ve learned anything since the signing of the Barbados agreement, it’s that Maduro is willing, but not necessarily interested, to isolate himself.”
At the moment, expectations are rising for Maduro’s inauguration, which experts say could spark new unrest.
But despite the protests, Maduro has offered no indication that he will step down. And Trump may continue his campaign to loosen Maduro’s grip on power in his second term.
“Maduro and his government have decided to wait and see,” Dib said.
