When the expansion of the Trans -Mountain pipeline was opened on May 1, 2024 and the oil from Alberta carried to the BC coast, there was no opening ceremony. The Federal Government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who bought the project and spent over 34 billion US dollars – made the pipeline one of the largest infrastructure projects in Canada, said almost nothing about it.
“This was one thing that the liberal government did right for the oil sector … and they did not celebrate at all. There was no ceremony for tapes,” said Rory Johnston, founder of ContextAn oil market research service.
Even Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a large Trudeau antagonist, thanked the federal liberals for the end of the pipeline. say It would be a “Game Chang” for the oil industry from Alberta and an example of working with the federal province.
However, the liberals were strongly criticized for the pipeline of climate lawyers, which they considered the government to reveal their emission reduction goals and gave the oil and gas industrial Canada’s greatest emitter to the planet-heat-powered house gas-one massive boost.
All of this seemed to be a distant memory in the leadership debates of the liberal party this week. Both in the French and English speech debates, the candidates at the leadership points pressed warmer feelings against pipelines.
“A project like Energy East is possible. It is a fact that it is possible to build a pipeline to Quebec, to the Maritimes from Alberta. … I think it is an opportunity for us that we should take,” said former central banker Mark Carney in the French debate on Monday.
“I am very proud to be the minister that has access to our energy for the Pacific. This diversification is so valuable today. It gives us an alternative to the United States. We need it more than ever,” said former finance minister Chrystia Freeland on Tuesday at the English debate.
All of this comes when Canada is exposed to the threats of US President Donald Trump to make Canada the 51st state and to hit the tariffs to Canadian exports that could promote the export-dependent economy of Canada, have led to a newly discovered interest in the fact that Canada is falling to Canada’s support, including pipelines.
But even if the political climate for new pipeline projects becomes cheaper, they still stand to the continued transition from fossil fuels to clean energy.
This means that building new pipelines for Canada’s energy security and politicians who are looking for Hebel are useful at Trump, but for private companies that try to make a profit is not very appealing.
What do Canadians think about new pipelines?
An online -angus Reid survey From 2,012 Canadians, the pipeline support proposes at the end of January.
Energy East, which canceled West-East pipeline in 2017, which was canceled in 2017, has increased from 58 to 65 percent since 2019. The support for the pipeline even achieved 47 percent in quebec, where there was a mass movement against the project when it was proposed due to environmental problems.
A little more than half of the Canadians also seem to support the Northern Gateway, a planned pipeline that would bring Alberta oil to the BC coast, but was canceled in 2016 by the Trudeau government.
In BC, the survey showed 55 percent of the respondents to support the Northern Gateway, which was originally rejected by many indigenous and environmental groups for potential spots along their route through the province and in the waters of Nord -BC
“People are doing a kind of alternatives. You know how do we boost our economy from the USA?” Hayden said Mertins-Kirkwood, senior researcher at the Canadian Center for Policy alternatives.
He said that this return to pipelines has a lack of political imagination, and Canada should use the moment to strengthen other industries – such as clean electricity or manufacture with a safer future in a world that refers to fossil fuels.
“There is an enormous risk of stranded assets that we continue to double, and the infrastructure that we will not need in the next few decades,” he said.
“Instead of building a new infrastructure that will take us for 100 years.”
Matto Mildenberg, professor of political science at the University of California Santa Barbara, who studied climate change policy and policy in North America, said that the political tensions with the USA had opened up the room to talk about pipelines, but he still expected that a future liberal government was concentrated on energy loss, which was the key priority of the party for almost a decade.
“I don’t see any of the messaging that we hear from the Freeland and Carney campaigns as a determination of the climate as a topic,” he said.
What teachings were drawn by Trans Mountain?
The Trans-Mountain project and its recent production costs indicate future Canadian pipeline suggestions.
Children in Texas, children Morgan, proposed to expand the 2012 pipeline for the first time. The pipeline transfers oil from Alberta to ports and refineries on the west coast, and the company wanted to more than double its capacity and offer Alberta oil companies the opportunity to export to markets in Asia and elsewhere.
However, the project confronts significant protests and legal challenges of environmental groups, First Nations along the route and the BC government itself. In 2018, children Morgan hired the project and said it may have to give it up completely because of all the opposition.
The Trudeau government then entered to end it, bought the pipeline for 4.5 billion US dollars and spent billions more to build the expansion.
“Even if it was difficult over the budget and even if the pipeline itself never actually breaks as an independent project, the advantage of the crown is that the federal government can take a far more broader economic picture for whether it is worth it or not,” said Johnston.
He said, that means that the government can take the long-term advantages of Alberta, employees for the oil industry and now a way to export oil without being completely dependent on the USA-even if the pipeline itself is not successful as a company, based on how expensive it was to build.
As part of the process to determine companies for companies that use the pipeline, the Federal Energy Regulator will check why the project costs so much.
“I think if I would take this type of nation construction project seriously, we have to understand what went wrong with Trans Mountain,” said Johnston, pointing out that some of the costs probably had to drill through mountains or bad luck. Other pipelines may not necessarily have such expensive obstacles, he said.
After more than a decade of delays and divisions, oil now flows through the extended trans-mountain pipeline of Canada $ 34 billion. Reporter Erin Collins and a CBC News team traveled all the way to find out how the pipeline changes life in the communities that runs through it.
What about the transition of clean energy?
Since 2021, the international energy agency, which has advised industrialized countries on energy markets and projections, has clear: In order to avoid the worst effects of climate change that are more and more serious, the world has to work on NET zero emissions by 2050.
According to the IEA, this means that no new long-term oil and gas projects should be built.
Last June in June Forecast that Global oil demand will reach its climax by 2029, since electricity generation on renewable sources and electric cars is becoming increasingly popular.
“If the world is successful to bring the demand for fossil demand quickly enough to reach the net zero emissions by 2050, new projects would be exposed to large commercial risks,” warns the agency, since the world would not give enough demand for fossil fuels.
“I think that the Canadians have to deal with the probably decreasing role of fossil fuels in the global economy in the course of the energy transition. And that will mean that the Canadian economy can no longer be rooted in the extraction of fossil fuels,” said Mildenberg.
“I think that a better approach to thinking about the disorder that the current American government creates is to think about other ways of thinking how Canada can become energy -independent in a way that also meets the needs of the climate.”
