Ukraine clearly attracted the attention of US President Donald Trump with her obvious readiness to exchange access to rare Earth resources with Washington in order to support and security guarantees.
Trump wants what he has made available as a “equalization” to support the United States for Ukraine according to Russia’s full invasion. And he would like to pay this payment in the form of minerals, metals and other things in Ukraine, as the US manager put on last week.
The US Finance Minister Scott Bessent traveled to Ukraine to discuss the proposal that was first achieved with Trump last autumn, and informed the reporters on Wednesday that he hoped that a deal could be achieved within a few days.
According to Bessen, such a deal in Ukraine could deliver a “security sign” after the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meanwhile said in his daily speech that this strengthens both the security of Ukraine and “give our economic relationships new dynamics”.
But how much trust can Kyiv put in a white house guided by Trump to support Ukraine now and in the future? Ukraine may not be able to withdraw from the offer, whereby Trump remains critical after almost three years of the all-out war with Russia for Kyiv for Kyiv.
“I think the problem for Ukraine is that it doesn’t really have much choice,” said Oxana Shevel, Associate Professor of Political Science at Bostoner Tufts University.
If the United States gave up its support, Shevel says that it is possible that Russian President Vladimir Putin can “complete his fundamental goal” to eliminate the existence of an independent Ukraine.
Pete Hegseth says that NATO membership, the borders before 2014, is not realistic for Ukraine in any ceasefire negotiations and that Europe shoulder more costs for the defense of Ukraine.
Various statements about the US directive
Trump and important officials of his administration have given various public comments on Ukraine and made it unclear how his white house will act.
On Wednesday, however, the US President said that he spoke to both leaders, first Putin, then Zelenskyy, about the prospect of ending the war.
Trump has long claimed that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours – even though the conflict is raging a few weeks after his new presidency. And while Trump has threatened Russia with sanctions and tariffs, the President and the Supreme US officials say that Ukraine is probably not occupied by Russia – be it recently lost or in events that have developed since 2014.
Then there is the question of the Ukrainian minerals that have to stay in Kyiv’s hands so that the USA can access it – one point Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials have underlined.
There are more than a dozen elements that are seen as rare earths, and those who can be found in Ukraine are Lanthanum, Cerium, Neodym, Erbium and Yttrium. The research financed by the EU also shows that Ukraine has scandium reserves. However, the details of the data are classified.
Rare earths are used in manufacturing magnets that make the power supply for electric vehicles, in mobile phones and other electronics as well as for scientific and industrial applications.
A transaction leader
The Shevel of Tufts University sees Ukraine’s decision to dangle access to the rare earths as a strategic step, and not necessarily as a “inappropriate” proposal under the circumstances.
Shevel says that Ukraine understands that it is a US president who looks at things through a transaction lens, so that his minerals are not a surprise for Trump.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said CNN this week that people have to remember that Trump is a businessman “primarily”.
“He has a business style of politics, he has a business style in which he spoke about politics … and he immediately chose a business approach for it.”
Not a previous focus for Ukraine
Trump said he wants 500 billion US dollars in rare earth minerals.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, says that every effort to develop and extract these resources does not take place overnight and unclear how abundant they are.
“The fact is that nobody knows how much they have there and what the value of it is,” he said in an interview.
“It will take years to carry out geological studies,” he said. “Years to build extraction systems.”
According to Gorodnichenko, Ukraine has not focused on developing these resources in recent decades, perhaps because it faces challenges to gain foreign capital for this.
He also said that even if the United States and Ukraine could achieve such a deal, it is not clear whether one of the two land will be satisfied in the end.
“I am not sure whether this will be a slam-dark deal for everyone,” he said, noting that it could also lead tensions with other Ukrainian allies who supported Kyiv.
Continued dangers and pressure
The comprehensive war is about to enter its fourth year, and the pressure did not allow Ukraine.
While Russia may have missed the government in Kyiv, it has reached a point where it is now almost checking a fifth of the Ukrainian country.
George Barros, the Russian team, which leads to the US study of war examination, says that Russia’s position in Ukraine becomes precarious in the course of the war, and Ukraine can use it.
“The most important thing the Ukrainians need to keep the Russians in this manual is the continued military support,” he said.
