Like US President Donald Trump pretty much antagonized with tariffs and, when the trade war between the two largest economies, escalates exponentially, there are questions about whether the world order has irrevocably collapsed and which countries could arise as new guides.
“The world order of the past 80 years, as we know, is dead,” said Cameron Johnson, Senior Partner at the Supply Chain Consultancy Tidalwave Solutions based in Shanghai.
As Countries everywhere return with their answers To Trumps Tariffs -Now, when the break of 10 percent for 90 days with the exception of China-old analysts, say that the world may have no choice but to look at Asia to strengthen trade and cooperation, especially since the US regime seems to be increasingly unpredictable.
Consequences of a tit-for act
On April 2, Trump hit almost every country on a blanket by 10 percent tariff rate. Harder is hit with many. China was one of them with 34 percent.
This movement left A Full-for-act With Beijing, which quickly increased.
And although many countries that have tried to negotiate with Trump, there are no signs that at least the unpredictability is over.
Indeed, exactly the other way around. There is that Last break. Then there is an escalation with China, which is currently exposed to 125 percent tariffs, while a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry has sworn that the country will “fight to the end” if the United States does not return. The Chinese tariff rate for US imports was 84 percent on Wednesday. It also set export restrictions for rare elements that are of crucial importance for electric vehicles, weapons and computer chips.
Johnson, an American in Shanghai, says Trump’s recent actions will only “consolidate the Chinese influence on the supply chains in Asia and Africa”.
“Nobody, at least in this region, has the feeling that the USA has shared values more with them,” he said.
“The whole world shifts here. And if you are not on this train, you will be screwed and your people are screwed, and that’s not good.”
China has made itself on the street
This happens in particular because the detailed list of countries that were hit with tariffs The United States tried to court, like VietnamPlaced strategically to bridge supply chains between the USA and China.
China meets the United States in a vulnerable place when the trade war escalated between the two. Then Andrew Chang explains why mathematics to determine the global mutual tariffs of President Donald Trump is misleading.
Conversely, China has been positioning itself as a country for years with which other shops and trade can do in order to reconcile in several continents, especially with his massive belt and street initiativeA number of global infrastructure projects that are supposed to strengthen their economic and political footprint. In many ways, the redesign of the world order began long before Trump’s second term.
China has become Africa’s largest trading partner in the past 20 years. It has also been the one since 2009 largest trading partner the association of the Southeast Asian nations (Asean) countries.
“(China is) the only country with money, people and technology that can support developing countries,” said Johnson, pointing out that the USA weakened sophisticated investments in its own country as in cars instead of expanding the markets in overseas.
In practical terms, countries that want investments and technology could probably be forced to turn in China as a technology leader and the second largest economy in the world.
The countries injured by US tariffs could search emotionally for other options.
“This is China as the long -term winner,” said Johnson.
All Asian countries could benefit from this; China, South Korea and Japan recently held his first meeting for five years.
China and Europe
There is speculation of China and the European countries could also get closer with the drama despite frosty relationships, characterized by The latest anti-dumping examinations.
On Tuesday the Chinese premier Li Qiang and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen a call kept According to the Commission, the “proportionate importance of maintaining continuity and stability of EU China relationships”.
The negotiations should be resumed EU tariffs on electric vehicles produced by China, which were imposed last autumn. (There is still no word about whether Canada intends to keep his 100 percent tariff. Following the model of the US Levy of the Biden era about EVs from China.)
In March, British Energy Secretary Ed Miliband China has visited the first formal climate meeting of the two countries for almost a decade.
Although US President Donald Trump is growing at home and abroad at home and abroad, he defended his plans for tariffs on Tuesday, including 104 percent in China, after refusing to raise retaliation for American goods.
However, thawing between China and Europe would probably be weak.
Remarkable – by the Leyen, on the phone this week with Premier Li, said that she was concerned about Chinese goods, which, given the US -Zölle, flooded Europe, which could continue to diverge.
Canada’s low risk strategy
Some analysts say Canada should also consider strengthening relationships with China.
Prime Minister Mark Carney in March stepped down from the election campaign path And last month went to Europe, his first international journey after being sworn in.
“They focus on a strategy with little risk,” said Gregory Chin, professor of political economy at York University in Toronto.
Later this month when he was asked about China’s ambassador to Ottawa whether he was discussing the boosting trade relationships, said Carney that he was careful.
“There are partners in Asia who can (with) build deeper relationships” – but China does not include that, he said.
The advertising of China can be exposed to additional pressure for western countries.
“Actually, it is quite difficult to deal with a country that has a completely different industrial policy and economic structure,” said Dan Wang, director of China for the consulting firm Eurasia Group.
However, Chin said Canada had to take it into account. “It would be stupid to ignore (China),” he said.
“This idea of the West … leads the way it traditionally has, the world has already developed,” he said. “We are in a multipolar world. We have been there for a decade, if not more.”
Risks closely connected to China
However, Chin recognizes the inherent risks.
China was accused of building barriers, which made it difficult for other countries to export goods there. The EU lists 31 types of themTo the highest in the world, including stressful administrative procedures.
An annual US report Details 50 pages of alleged trade injuries.
Dan Treffler, professor at the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, says that China is “very much arbitrarily in his measures against Canada. “
He says Trump could give up his tariff quest as soon as he realizes that his goal of bringing the production and jobs in the States will probably not reach.
“A change to the middle is not impossible,” he said.
What arises when the dust falls off is anything but clear, but many analysts like Wang say that the US China relationship is at least “beyond redemption”.
“There is a chance for a complete breakdown,” she said.
It could mean that China now gives more opportunity to play an even bigger role in the world. The West may have no choice but to accept it.
