On February 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a long-awaited meeting with US President Donald Trump to persuade him to continue the US support for Ukraine. The encounter was probably not what the Ukrainian head of state expected.
Trump and the US Vice President JD Vance chastise Zelenskyy in front of television cameras because they were “disrespectful” and refused to accept their initiative for an armistice with Russia.
It is obvious that Zelenskyy will not return to Washington during Trump’s presidency. It is also obvious that the US print on Ukraine will escalate considerably in the following weeks and months, since Trump presses Kyiv to make Russia considerable concessions in return for peace.
Before the showdown in the White House, the Trump administration Zelenskyy’s legitimacy questioned and urged to prevent presidential elections. However, a rushed choice with the sole purpose of eliminating the incumbent could mean a disaster for the country.
Before the full invasion of Russia in Ukraine, the approval reviews for Zelenskyy’s presidency was only 28 percent and 11 percent for his party. Russia’s full invasion gave the Ukrainians gathered behind the president and his popularity achieved record highs. In the past two years, however, his approval ratings have been a consistent decline. According to surveys, the trust in Zelenskyy fell from 54 percent in April 2024 to 49 percent in January – not as low as Trump, but well before his valuation of 90 percent in May 2022.
Several factors have contributed to Zelenskyy’s declining popularity, including brazen corruption under his administration and the growing fatigue from the ongoing war.
The Ukrainian president – well consciously of his vulnerability – made it clear that he does not feel comfortable with the competition. The missions are high for him, because if he loses a re -selection offer, he could be pursued by his rivals because of corruption or various forms of retaliation. The surveys already show that if elections were stopped immediately, he would lose.
An impressive challenger after Zelenskyy has already arisen: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four-star general who worked as the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces until February 2024. Public trust in him is one of the highest and is 72 percent in January.
Although Zaluzhnyi was released by the President in 2023 in accordance with the failed Ukrainian counter -offensive, there was speculation that his popularity in Ukraine could also have been a factor. The general was sent abroad to act as a Ukrainian ambassador in Great Britain – a position that he still takes.
So far, Zaluzhnyi has not intended to run, although there are no guarantees that he would not change his opinion. If he stays outside, other military figures such as Kyrylo Budanov can enter.
Budanov, the head of the Ukraine secret service, has a public trust assessment of 62 percent. After a year of top -class media appearances, he recently disappeared from the public eye. Rumors have spread that Zelenskyy’s office wanted to remove him, which led to his sudden retreat. But it can reappear well as soon as the campaign begins.
The boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk could become a potential dark horse. In a country in which a former comedian became president, a victorious athlete does not seem to be an improbable candidate. Although he has not published political ambitions, he has started in surveys and his assessment is currently 60 percent.
Then there is former President Petro Poroshenko, who has low approval ratings, but still a dangerous rival from Zelenskyy. Since 2019, more than 130 criminal matters have started to approve a coal supply system from the Donbas region occupied in Russia because of betrayal.
Poroshenko is a pronounced critic of Zelenskyy and does not hide his political ambitions. He traveled to the United States and met Trump’s team. In February, when he tried to go to the Munich Security Conference, he was not allowed. It now stands from state -based sanctions for “national security reasons”, which includes freezing assets.
The message of the sanctions is clear: Poroshenko is excreted from the presidential race before it even begins. In this context of the perceived political persecution, other potential challengers have not reported and are too afraid to walk.
There was concern about Zelenskyy’s handling of opposition figures, but so far no strong public complaint has emerged from its allies. After the confrontation in the White House, the European leaders commented for him. Zelenskyy gave this a temporary thrust at home, but it is unclear how long it could apply.
In addition to the bitter political rivalries and retaliation, the Ukrainian political scene is also shaped by continued divisions within society. The war intensified the emotions and divided the country directly in the middle, which leads to a volatile situation.
The ultra -nationalists not only influence in certain parts of the population, but are also enabled as active participants in the war. There is also a part of society that is prone to Russian and does not want the conflict to be continued.
If an election from abroad is imposed in this volatile situation, it could prove to be a catastrophic one than the invasion of Russia or the loss of the industrial core countries of Ukraine. The danger is not only that a third of the population cannot vote and the legitimacy of the election may be questioned.
The real threat is that the vote could ignite a fight against everyone before a single ballot is handed over. An incumbent who fears to lose a range of re -election and political rivals that have regained relevance can fall back on the exploitation of social divisions. The military and security authorities could be forced to act, which contributes to a potentially explosive mix.
If presidential elections can polarize societies in peace dangerously – as we have seen in the United States – they can be much worse in war. A over -the -ended election in Ukraine, which serves the political plans of a foreign power, is certainly a recipe for disasters. A vote should be held as soon as there is a permanent ceasefire that enables all Ukrainians to give their voices without fear of the prospect of polarization and conflicts.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial attitude of Al Jazera.
