Arsenal transfer challenge over striker issue: Alexander Isak stresses need for striker but no easy fix in January | Football news

Mikel Arteta’s comments on the Carabao Cup match ball dominated the headlines following Arsenal’s semi-final first-leg loss to Newcastle on Tuesday, but the most revealing response of his press conference was about the impact of Alexander Isak.

“I don’t think he created or had any big chances, but he was involved in both goals, unfortunately, with the two times he kept the ball in the area,” Arteta said of Isak’s contribution to the win.

“That’s what you get when you have real quality up front.”

It was an extremely honest comment from the Arsenal boss, the not-so-subtle implication being that he does not possess a striker of a similar caliber. Arsenal are certainly one of the 25-year-old’s suitors. His performance at the Emirates Stadium underlined why.

While Isak took his chances, scoring the opener and setting up Newcastle’s second with his only two strikes, Arsenal finished with nothing to show for 23 tries. Their total of 3.09 goals expected was the highest by a Premier League side without scoring all season.

On the one hand, it is positive that they were able to create so many chances without their most creative player in Bukayo Saka, and with Martin Odegaard clearly sub-par after a spell of illness that limited him to a substitute appearance against Brighton.

But the lack of edge has become a theme. Tuesday’s game was the sixth of the season in which Arsenal have failed to score. There have been seven more games in which they have scored only once. Only three of those matches have ended in victory.

Arteta is under surveillance. As much for his side’s perceived reliance on set-pieces as their struggle to convert scoring chances. But he is not the only manager for whom it is a problem.

The percentage of games in which Arsenal have scored at least one goal is actually the third lowest among Premier League teams this season. The point is that it is much higher than that of Liverpool, the team they are fighting to stay at the top of the table.

It is not new for Arsenal either.

Arsenal set a club record with a total of 91 goals scored in the Premier League last season, but had eight games in all competitions in which they failed to find the back of the net, seven of which ended in defeat. Eventual champions Manchester City had just four such games during the season.

Arteta has built an incredible defense. Their mistakes against Newcastle were uncharacteristic. But recent history shows the value of firepower, as well as defensive stinginess, when it comes to winning the biggest prizes – and that’s where Arsenal come up short.

Kai Havertz has proved invaluable going forward. His latest goal against Ipswich was his 12th in all competitions and he posted strong numbers after stepping into the role last season too. Gabriel Jesus, meanwhile, is on his best goalscoring run since joining Arsenal.

But both players are ultimately disappointing, something that shines through in the underlying data.

While Arsenal’s supporting forwards have exceeded their expected goals to varying degrees over the past three seasons, even taking into account recent relegations, their No. 9 has done the opposite.

According to Opta’s expected goals model, Havertz and Jesus have scored roughly five goals short of what they should, based on the quality of their chances. For Havertz, Tuesday’s game, when he missed opportunities worth 1.13 xG, typified the issue.

Why are Isak, Cunha and Mbeumo appealing?

The timing was particularly unfortunate given the exploits of his opposite number Isak on the other side of the pitch.

His goal was his 10th in his last nine games, 15th of the season and 50th in 89 total appearances since his £63million arrival at Newcastle from Real Sociedad in 2022.

There is no exact science to the art of scoring goals. But the top scorers usually score more goals than ‘expected’, often aided by an ability to convert the more difficult chances as well as the simpler ones, something that usually translates into consistent xG overperformance.

These players have an obvious knack for making fringe plays and Isak is certainly one of them. Basic data for the last three seasons shows that he has scored nearly four goals more than expected, scoring 44 Premier League goals from 40.45 xG.

It’s worth noting that Wolves’ Matheus Cunha and Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo, two of Arsenal’s other reported attacking targets, have shown the same ability.

Cunha’s total of 24 goals from 15.6 xG gives him the second highest positive margin among Premier League players with a minimum of 15 goals since the start of the 2022/23 season. Mbeumo, who like Isak, scored against Arsenal recently, is not far behind him in the rankings with a total of 31 goals from 25.69 xG.

Arteta is well aware of Arsenal’s need for a finisher. His comments at his press conference following their Tuesday loss to Isaac left little room for doubt. But identifying targets is one thing; Securing them, especially in the middle of the season, is another.

Isak is said to be valued at £150m. He has little incentive to leave and his club has little incentive to sell as he leads their bid for silverware and a return to the Champions League. Signing him in the summer would be challenging enough, never mind in January.

Cunha and Mbeumo are equally important to Wolves and Brentford respectively and while the latter’s contract expires in 18 months, the former is in talks over a new deal.

Arsenal’s other option is to look overseas. But the challenge of adapting to the rigors of the Premier League facing newcomers, particularly mid-season, is such that the club have generally favored Premier League-ready additions under Arteta.

There are no easy solutions, in other words. But Arsenal must do their best to find one even in difficult circumstances. The need for more firepower was evident even before Saka’s injury. Tuesday’s loss and Arteta’s comments afterwards only highlighted the issue.